LordTheNightKnight said:
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First, I apologize if my reaction seems a bit harsh. In my line of work, mental health, a skill you learn very quickly is being able to take it along with giving it.
Of course they are not absolute, you are right. They are a predictor tool used to gauge the amount of interest in a game. As ioi said,
"Boutros, only a handful of games (Nintendo mainly) would ever double from final pre-orders to week one sales - most will be more like 25-50% higher. Not sure why anybody would have expected 1.5m from 885k pre-orders?"
Source: http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/82519/fallout-new-vegas-week-one-sales-in/
Goldeneye as of October 23, 2010 registered 49,994 preorders in the Wii's largest market, the Americas.
Source: http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders.php
So taking the expert's observation, if Goldeneye was released this week, then it would sell a little over 100,000 at the most in the Americas. However, it still has less than a week to go. If there isn't a magical upshot in Goldeneye preorders, then I just don't see it reaching 500k much less a 1m sold by the end of week 1. However, I can see Goldeneye selling 1 to 2.5 million copies by this year's end.
As for preorders not pertaining to Wii as an "absolute measure," then whose opinion do we trust? Sean Malstrom?
I'm sorry, I just don't buy Goldeneye being an exception from the sell double the preorder at most rule according to VGChartz. Nor do I buy Malstrom because his blog does not go well back into the PS2 era, thusforth I have reservations on who he will be heaping the most praise upon if Nintendo is not #1 next generation. To be fair, Malstrom has criticized Nintendo more than usual in the last few months, but not as harsh as "the industry," which I take to include Sony and Nintendo along with Sakamoto and diva developers in Japan and the West.
My final prediction for Goldeneye week 1 is 200k to 500k at most. 1 to 2.5 million by January 1, 2011. It will get slaughtered by Black Ops and Medal of Honor.
