360 to sell 50m through retail by end of 2010? Lets track it......

[Makaha]

Seece said:

Makaha said:

Seece said:

Makaha said:

well, there is a factor in the 360 reaching 50 million--

 

if Nintendo does cut the price on the Wii, it will KILL Kinect sales

 

so a Wii price cut would do two things: increase Wii hardware sales, AND destroy Kinect sales

 

I'm not saying that Nintendo will cut the price of the Wii.

 

I'm saying that if Nintendo did cut the price of the Wii, parents would see a $ 150 Wii versus a $ 300 KInect bundle.  Which one do you think they will buy?

Especially in this economy.

It would absolutely kill Kinect.

 

Personally, I think Nintendo would be dumb not to cut the price, and soon.

I honestly think if Nintendo cut the Wii price, MS will monitor first 3 weeks of sale and if it's not as they'd hope, they'll cut for black friday.

 

I don't know about that....

 

That would make Microsoft look really bad....

 

Here they are, marketing and releasing a brand new product--Kinect--at a price they'll already state in commercials (in the next month or so).  And now, after the Wii cuts the price, MS will say in commercials "we are dropping the price!!"

 

That would look really bad ,

to me anyway

Well I know what you mean, it will look like a failed product, legally though they won't be allowed to even call it a price cut after 3 weeks (at least in this country, product needs to have had the previous price for at least 3 months, IIRC) so I imagine the majority of people Kinect is actually aimed at will think no less than "oh that's nice, the price has gone down!", the people that bought it in the first 3 weeks would get a rebate/refund on their money more than likely. Anyway I was actually talking about the 360 getting a price cut not Kinect. Of which they havn't cut the arcade price in 2 years now.

 

the thing about Kinect is....

 

the way life works is....

well if you go back to before the Wii released, everyone said that the Wii will be a huge huge failure, it is doomed, and  they laughed at the Wii, and look at what happened?  The Wii was an incredible success

 

Now, before Kinect releases, everyone is saying Kinect will be a huge gigantic success and sell tons of 360s....

so if you look at the trend, you can see what's going to happen, life is just unpredictable.....

 

It's just setting everyone up for big disappointment....

 

the Kinect software lineup is very weak, and it just doesn't have a killer app like the Wii had with Wii Sports

 

it may push some hardware in the beginning because of the new-ness, but unless the Kinect experience is extremely COMPELLING, Kinect sales will fade fast

 

people are just setting themselves up fro major disappointment