| billsalias said:
The fundamental problem is Sony did not release detailed information so we are all left to speculate on what the situation is. In this case both sides are showing their bias and taking the best and worst case scenarios respectively.
Currently we know is Sony has shipped 2.5 million of "Move", that is all. They did not give us detailed information of what those units were and they did not give a breakdown of the ratio of sales.
There is talk of shortages, but there are no details. I think universally no one is saying there is a shortage of starter packs but I think any reasonable person will agree the wands are not well supplied. (Anecdotal
These two bits of information can be interpreted in so many ways that it is absurd for anyone on either side to claim anything as "fact". As an example here are two scenarios that are both supported by the above what I consider objective information.
Sony Bias Sony shipped 750k started packs, 100k navigators and 1.65 million wands. 1 million PS-Eye owners bought 1 or 2 move controller and 600k starter packs sold with some of those people buying a second wand as well. The navigators are irrelevant. This results in 1.6 million unique move users. The 150k starter packs out there are enough for it to seem in supply but just barely and the wands are essentially sold out. Who cares about navs.
Anti Sony Bias Sony shipped 1.7 million starter packs, 400k wands, and 400k navs. Only 100k starter packs sold and there are pallets of them sitting in warehouses waiting to be discounted because they can't be unloaded. 100k PS-Eye owners bought a wand and nav and each of the 100k starter pack buyers bought three of each, so yes all 400k sold out but there is only a user base of 200k.
With the information we have both viewpoints are equally valid. Personally I think both are equally unlikely. As usual the reality is some place in the middle with the scenario probably that Sony guessed wrong at the starter pack to wand ratio and the production they are ramping up is on stand along wands and they have plenty of starter packs available.
The lack of detailed sales information coming out of Sony backs up my "some place in the middle" scenario. If news was as good as the Sony fans say they would be giving a lot more details, if it was as bad as the Sony haters say then they would not have said anything about numbers and stuck to their slow burn comments. |
That is indeed the problem. Ioi's calculations here are based on guesstimates and of course assuming different ratios can result in wildly different scenarios.
As I've stated in other threads I think that the likely position is indeed "somewhere in the middle" as you put it.
Move standalone Wands for example is definately the main element they are struggling to keep in stock. Starter bundles seem to be in decent demand but are clearly in an okay stock position in most retailers.
Initial SW sales for new Move titles has been okay but not spectacular by any means.
Older titles with patches have seen small boosts, and of course existing owners of EyePet, Heavy Rain, etc. have surely been behind some of the demand. EyePet owners in particular only face the purchase of a single Wand to get going, a very low cost of entry level to Move.
I think is Sony says 2.5 million shipped then that is likely pretty true. Sell through though could be anything from 10% to 80% depending upon how you want to play the assumptions.
I reckon it's around 60 to 65% myself with a very fractured purchase base at launch, with some Eyepet owners just getting a Wand, some Heavy Rain owners getting a bundle, some people getting a bundle and trying out the demos, some getting a bundle plus SC, some getting Start the Party, etc.
I'd estimate maybe 600K to 900K install base depending, again, upon how you split the percentages. I'd say a fair number of Move owners probably bought 2 or more items - for example I had Eyepet (and camera) and ended up buying 2 Move wands and a navi - that's 3 distinct purchases from a retail sales perspective.
Unless Sony decide to really come clean with the launch ratio of bundles to wands to navis, the sales of each (so far as they can infer from retail) then we really are just guessing with a very broad spectrum of possibilities.
At least Kinect should be easier to judge at launch: no existing games base, 1 unit per 360 in principle and nothing but new SW titles to judge from.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
