Software Sales Definitely Appear to Have Peaked for Current Machines

[TheSource]

Do you guys actually read what I write?

PS3 software has already topped 100m. Its going to be 135m or so this year - thats not new. PS3 is pretty much mass market pricing now - the PS2 sold quite well at $300 and only increased a ton at $200 for a year because the base was still smallish (under 20m) when the price dropped.

Look at the figures (these are as of the EMEAA update this week, haven't done the calculation since):

 

X360	Total SW	Microsoft	Activision	EA	Ubisoft	Take Two	THQ	Sega	Capcom	Konami	Square-Enix	Namco-Bandai
2005	2.98	0.69	0.88	0.83	0.11	0.17	0.00	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06
2006	23.73	4.29	2.96	6.45	3.01	2.73	1.33	0.80	0.69	0.12	0.18	0.07
2007	61.04	16.67	11.83	10.49	5.76	4.41	2.25	0.75	1.13	1.13	0.16	0.87
2008	113.20	16.60	19.32	19.97	10.40	12.44	4.70	4.95	1.86	2.36	0.92	1.81
2009	113.36	14.98	22.64	21.95	7.76	7.12	5.69	2.67	4.57	1.65	2.98	1.99
2010 YTD	72.75	12.09	7.03	17.25	4.42	8.52	3.37	3.11	2.45	0.87	3.61	0.80

 

PS3	Total SW	Sony	Activision	EA	Ubisoft	Take Two	THQ	Sega	Capcom	Konami	Square-Enix	Namco-Bandai
2006	2.00	0.62	0.31	0.50	0.03	0.09	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.17
2007	27.80	8.57	3.37	5.24	2.65	1.09	0.90	0.91	0.00	1.09	0.00	0.45
2008	81.18	15.66	9.64	13.37	6.95	8.11	2.63	3.44	1.89	6.56	0.00	2.12
2009	91.80	15.72	15.93	16.54	6.28	3.18	3.97	3.15	4.68	3.56	3.63	3.24
2010 YTD	72.65	13.94	6.47	14.61	3.11	7.14	2.73	4.29	3.37	2.63	4.88	1.51

 

Wii	Total SW	Nintendo	Activision	EA	Ubisoft	Take Two	THQ	Sega	Capcom	Konami	Square-Enix	Namco-Bandai
2006	8.18	5.61	0.50	0.30	0.68	0.00	0.14	0.25	0.00	0.09	0.00	0.00
2007	71.97	44.19	3.23	5.32	2.58	0.71	1.49	4.19	1.72	0.76	0.58	0.55
2008	171.69	88.17	11.05	11.16	8.18	3.52	5.57	9.99	1.68	3.58	0.20	3.08
2009	179.40	84.52	11.41	14.91	9.68	3.02	5.57	8.47	2.58	3.11	0.73	3.26
2010 YTD	89.01	39.09	5.53	7.07	8.25	1.28	2.50	3.29	1.95	2.21	0.77	1.20

 

DS	Total SW	Nintendo	Activision	EA	Ubisoft	Take Two	THQ	Sega	Capcom	Konami	Square-Enix	Namco-Bandai
2004	3.32	2.15	0.26	0.32	0.14	0.00	0.03	0.16	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.13
2005	27.11	19.56	0.48	0.91	0.84	0.00	0.37	0.59	0.28	0.77	0.29	1.47
2006	76.38	50.29	0.99	1.77	1.02	0.02	2.02	2.58	0.90	1.24	2.50	2.02
2007	110.38	58.84	2.08	4.85	5.07	0.15	3.27	2.93	2.55	1.92	5.15	4.23
2008	156.79	58.52	8.53	8.21	19.85	1.48	7.32	7.74	1.51	2.45	4.62	2.91
2009	142.43	46.56	7.92	7.06	9.89	2.89	6.24	5.28	1.08	2.35	8.09	2.09
2010 YTD	67.08	24.39	3.00	1.85	3.08	1.16	2.07	2.35	0.60	1.73	3.90	1.95

 

PSP	Total SW	Sony	Activision	EA	Ubisoft	Take Two	THQ	Sega	Capcom	Konami	Square-Enix	Namco-Bandai
2004	0.74	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.24
2005	14.82	3.35	0.72	3.34	0.41	2.30	0.08	0.29	0.41	1.14	0.00	1.16
2006	23.31	4.33	0.89	4.22	0.61	2.73	1.02	0.74	1.34	1.29	0.39	1.76
2007	28.41	4.69	1.14	4.17	0.61	3.29	1.44	0.78	2.44	1.47	1.89	1.68
2008	38.11	7.40	1.10	5.71	0.74	3.11	1.89	1.91	3.67	2.00	2.50	2.14
2009	35.61	5.67	1.75	4.32	1.11	2.05	1.92	1.63	2.20	1.89	1.89	2.83
2010 YTD	22.88	3.18	0.61	2.17	0.64	1.14	0.59	1.57	1.23	2.77	1.67	2.10

Lets start with X360 - Microsoft will have a record year because of Kinect stuff. Activision is 15m off its 2009 pace. Call of Duty is still coming, but Modern Warfare 2 has yet to sell 15m on X360 in a year. Activision is in decline then on X360. EA is at 17m but 22m in its best year. This will be close, but I think its still down ultimately as EA has released its best titles - and I also included MTV games (Rockband) in 2010 but not in 2009, so EA - MTV is off by 6m units. Ubisoft is off by 6m from its 2008 peak on X360. Assassin's Creed will bridge some of that but its not going to sell enough in 2010 by itself. So Ubisoft is down too. Take Two had GTAIV in 2008, so that won't be matched. With GTA V in 2011 or 2012 it is possible that Take Two hasnt peaked on X360 even though it has been down from 2008 in 2009 and 2010 as GTA is the type of game people will buy even when avg purchases per user fall to two games per system per year. THQ is well off its 2009 pace, and I don't see them matching it.I don't think Sega can match its 5m year on X360 this year, and Capcom probably can't either. Konami and Namco-Bandai probably don't match their best years either. Square-Enix, thanks to FFXIII has had its best year on X360 already.

In review:

Definite Record Year on X360 in 2010: Microsoft, Square-Enix

Possible Record Year on X360 in 2010: EA

Moving on to PS3. Sony will have a record year because of Move / GT5. Its not in doubt at all. Activision is 9m off the pace, and COD can't make that up. EA will have a record year I'd say, although again I included MTV games (rockband) in 2010 but not 2009, so even there PS3 is 3m off yet. But that should be matched and exceeded slightly sometime in December. Ubisoft sold 7m PS3 games in 2008, that won't be matched in 2010. Take Two will probably set a record in 2010 on PS3. THQ is probably down slightly from 2009. Sega already has a record year on PS3. Capcom will be down on 2009 for PS3. Konami and Namco-Bandai are way down on 2008 and 2009 respectively. Square-Enix has a record year already.

In review:

Definite Record Year on PS3 in 2010: Sony, Sega, Square-Enix

Possible Record Year on PS3 in 2010: EA, Take Two

For systems that have seen peaks already, the peak year had half the companies see their peak in  year and the others decline - and thats what we're seeing with PS3 which is why I have it peaking in the current fiscal year for software.

Now Wii. Wii peaked in the year to March 2009. Nintendo software will be down in 2010, as will Activision and EA software. Ubisoft and Square-Enix are seeing record years on Wii. Namco-Bandai, Sega, THQ are past their peaks. Capcom and Konami will be down slightly to flat from their best years on Wii.

In review:

Definite Reocrd Year on Wii in 2010: Ubisoft, Square-Enix

Possible Record Year on Wii in 2010: Konami, Capcom

For DS - every publisher above will be off the record pace in 2010.

For PSP - Sega, Capcom, Konami will see their best year in 2010, and Namco-Bandai will be close.

So like I said at the start, the vast majority of publisher / system combinations are off their peaks in 2010. It isn't a terrible situation just yet - most publishers are still peaking on one to two platforms - but overall its pretty bad.

Ubisoft - peaking on Wii

EA - flattish on PS3 / X360

Sega - peaking on PS3 / PSP

Capcom - peaking on PSP / flattish on Wii

Namco-Bandai - flattish on PSP

Konami - peaking on PSP / flattish on Wii

Take Two - flattish on PS3

Square-Enix - peaking on PS3 / X360 / Wii

Sony / Microsoft - peaking on PS3 / X360

Basically, of the 11 companies releasing games for each platform in the charts above, which account for 55 combinations, we're only set about 10 instances of record sales on a platform ( two on Wii, three on PS3, two on X360, three on PSP - those are the locks) with a couple others that may just beat previous peaks (e.g. EA on PS3 and / or X360). It isn't just the declines in Wii / DS / PSP causing the drops either - X360 / PS3 software will be down against peak levels for over half of the publishers above.