in the end it will probably go upt 250K preorders. That means about 500k week one. Word of mouth, ads, black friday, christmas, etc. will drive kinect up to 3 million. But yes it is kind of a risk. Almost no one i know on xbox live that plays cod, halo reach, etc. looks like he/she will be buying kinect. To me personally it looks like another eyetoy (How much did that sell in the ps2 days?). Also it seems right now the only people who are preordering kinect are the people who already own an xbox 360. I know amazon doesn't really reflect majority of the population but while kinect is at number 12, the xbox 360 itself is at 38. The kinect xbox 360 bundle is at number 49. Also from what i can tell is that COD:BO will take away some sales from kinect. I know, I know how can cod take away sales from kinect? What people need to understand is that cod really appeals to the casuals. I would actually consider cod a casual shooter. Many guys and girls would rather buy cod over kinect for christmas. Kinect to me really only appeals to the kids and maybe girls. Obviously girls and some guys like to dance so dance central will be popular. And the kids would like kinectimals and kinect adventures. I don't know if parents would be willing to shell out $300 though.
The core gamer of course will be waiting until next year for some better titles.
