360 to sell 50m through retail by end of 2010? Lets track it......

[binary solo]

Makaha said:

binary solo said:

Seece said:

Makaha said:

well, there is a factor in the 360 reaching 50 million--

 

if Nintendo does cut the price on the Wii, it will KILL Kinect sales

 

so a Wii price cut would do two things: increase Wii hardware sales, AND destroy Kinect sales

 

I'm not saying that Nintendo will cut the price of the Wii.

 

I'm saying that if Nintendo did cut the price of the Wii, parents would see a $ 150 Wii versus a $ 300 KInect bundle.  Which one do you think they will buy?

Especially in this economy.

It would absolutely kill Kinect.

 

Personally, I think Nintendo would be dumb not to cut the price, and soon.

I honestly think if Nintendo cut the Wii price, MS will monitor first 3 weeks of sale and if it's not as they'd hope, they'll cut for black friday.

In which case Sony will have little choice but to do the same. Though it means sacrificing profitability, Sony still need to balance profits and market share due to how this generation started for them and how it's played out up to now.

 

so you think if the Wii dropped in price, both Sony and MS would follow?

all I know for sure is that if Nintendo drops the price of the Wii before Kinect launces, Kinect is DEAD!

end of story

Yes and no if Wii cuts price first. Sony won't drop PS3 price before mid-2011 unless it has to, and it will only feel the pressure to do so if both 360 and Wii drop in price. Another $50 cut for Wii would change the market a fair bit. But as Sony sees the 360 as its main competition for sales (see PS3 at end of 2009 have record sales despite Wii also having massive sales at the end of 2009), and it obviously doesn't see the Move/motion controls as being it's major sales driver, then a Wii only price drop won't have Sony shaking in its boots and rushing into a price cut. MS on the other hand seem to be pegging a great holiday sales period on Kinect, so a Wii price cut may be percieved as a potential threat to Kinect bringing in a large number of new owners to 360: Kinect will sell fairly well to the existing base regardless, but a $150 Wii (must add to this at least 1 extra Wiimote for 2-player) would be a big gap to the Arcade Kinect Bundle, so it would definitely get some people who are weighing up Kinect vs Wii for Christmas to go with Wii. So if MS feel like they need to shore up pricing for Kinect success there could be a price cut, either on 360 or just the Kinect/Kinect bundles. If MS goes for the 360 price cut then Sony will probably follow suit. If MS only drops Kinect to $100 then Sony will probably leave things the way they are. If MS do nothing, confident that Kinect is well positioned even against a $150 Wii then Sony obviously won't make any changes either.