Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

[Sri Lumpa]

greenmedic88 said:


Estimate 360 and PS3 sales to be a minimum of 15 and 8 million respectively for 23 million (lower than the actual total based on current weekly sales) combined.

To obtain 50% of the market, the PS3 and 360 have to sell 17 million units combined in 2008. Less, if the Wii is supposed to exceed 50% of the overall market.

Does that sound in any way shape or form reasonable?

[...] 

 I wouldn't say that's unreasonable, more like virtually impossible.

Huh?!?

You seem ignorant of the fact that the 360 launched in november '05 and had therefore a bit over two years to sell these 15.5-16 millions which means an average of about 7.5 millions a year... just like the PS3 (8.5-9 millions is for 14 months) for a total of 15 millions a year, with a big chunk of these sales stacked in the last two months.

 So even if the Wii does not increase production they still would have enough (21.6) to get to 50% marketshare (15 millions + 5.6 millions difference = 20.6).

Now there are more factors like the 360/PS3 selling more this year with GTA4/MGS4 or the Wii possibly selling less (an opinion widely held by PS3 fans for more than a year now) but calling it virtually impossible is laughable at best.

Of course you made a mistake in your yearly sales numbers but now that you have been corrected maybe you might want to reconsider your statement*.

* assuming you see this post as your post is dated from 2 weeks ago. :)