My guess is you're half right. Nintendo will release skyward sword in the holiday of 2011. They will not release Wii 2 at the same time. Q1 2012 or Holiday 2012 for that, given that Nintendo will want to bust its ass to provide enough supply for N6, so they're not going to stretch their resources on what will also be the 3DS's first holiday season
Also Dragon Quest X, which will likely be the only thing keeping Japan from absolutely needing a new console after Last Story hits
Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.