i think nintendo will be the fist, with a new console on early 2012. (maybe february - march, like the 3ds).
ms and sony will try to last as much as they can, but it really depends on the success of move and kinect. if kinect fails i see ms launching a new xbox for 2012 holydays, if not sometimes in 2013. sony will try to last until 2014 but they could end up releasing the ps4 in 2013.
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