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Kinect is as much about positioning themselves for next gen as it is about bringing in a new type of gamer imo.  Sorry but whoever said it's aimed at people who haven't bought a console since PS1, I beg to differ.  I think it's aimed at the Wii Sports market who want their box to help with overall health, not hurt and particularly at women who M$ have failed to attract in large numbers.  They want to sell to people who have never bought a vg console, those who have a Wii and want something new and 360 owners who will upgrade to include their families and friends in their hobby.      

So far as next gen, it looks like Ninty will be first out of the blocks.  When the industry leader does move, M$ will be in a better position to counter if they have a base and some experience in the fitness and lifestyle side of the vg business that Wii has dominated. 

If the massive anti-360 campaign based on the rrod didn't doom the console do you really think some tech problems with a peripheral will?  Any issues will get fixed fast and Kinect will be at least a moderate success financially.