I agree with the initial post, except I think more then 1-3 games will be sold on the hardware. I think the average will be like 2.5-3, so 2-4 games seems more plausible. Eyetoy is only a 2D camera, and doesn't have the same library of games as the Kinect, Kinect owners will definatly have more Kinect games.
BTW, for pricing, you can get a Kinect/360 Arcade bundle for $300 in US. Thats only 1.5 times as much as a Wii, and it probably won't hurt Wii sales too much, but I think it will push 360 sales, especially for those torn between getting an HD console, or a Wii (as a 360 Kinect is an HD console, with substantial motion gameplay games).
P.S. Kinect will have hybrid games. As in games like Forza Kinect will be playable with a steering wheel or the typical controller, but also playable with Kinect. If you include those games, Kinect owners should have 3-4 games on average that are Kinect usable. Kinect is a bit differenct then the Sega CD, but your comparision is still pretty valid.
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