PDF said:
Sri Lumpa said:
PDF said:
You run on the idea that both consoles will remain alive. If so the ps3 will have a hard time catching up. It may make the lead shoter but it may also always remain there. However the idea that both consoles will live a full life this gen is probably not gonna happen or atleast that is what ast rends tell us. If the 360 is the one to die the ps3 will have no trouble apsing the dead console. |
And you seem to run on the idea that one of them will stay alive while the other will die off but that is not what past trends tell us. Past trends tell us that you generally get a very strong victor and the rest of the competitors limp along with poor sales until they either die off (Dreamcast) or are replaced by their successor (Saturn, N64, GC and Xbox). Now I don't think that the 360 and PS3 will do as poorly as the GC and Xbox due to the bigger technical differences between Wii and PS360 so they both could do respectable numbers (30-40 millions consoles) but neither is likely to set the sales on fire and overtake/increase-the-lead over the other. It is unlikely that either will die off as they have powerful interests behind them but if your scenario was to happen the PS3 would be the one most likely to die off as it seems to need to cut its price just to keep up with the 360 which make it becoming profitable anytime soon doubtful and Sony is not in as good a financial shape as Microsoft is with its Windows/Office monopoly.
Hopefully neither will die off and both will come back with better engineered consoles (360 because of RROD, PS3 because it is overengineered and thus too expensie -> Sony should learn the KISS principle) next gen to give nintendo so real competition (I love their consoles and games but I wouldn't want them to have monopoly as it is never good for us).
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@sir lumpa - the saturn,xb,gc,n64 in my mind died. You say limp and maby that would be a better dicription but they were no longer competitive. I meant that specific console died not the company. All 3 companies will make another system. If you use that definition of dying then either the hardcore market will not move to the Wi and both can survive on cross-platform games plus 1st/2nd party exclusives orthe Wii snatches enough of the hardcore market to be dominant there and make both of them irrelevant and have both of them die. It is unlikely that only one of them will survive on harcore titles only and if only one did X360 has got more potential as it has already proven that it can sell software to hardcore gamers very well.
you say they wont die off because they each have strong intrests behind them. I dont think a console has been made without a strong interests but that hasnt stopped them from dying before. Not as strong at those interests. Sony has got the Blu-Ray interest and Microsoft is afraid that a future PS console might take enough tasks away from the PC to make them obsolete and their Windows and Office monopolies irrelevant (the same reason they forced Internet Explorer on all Windows users and fought tooth an nails their antitrust trial). If Sony pulled a Sega I could see Microsoft taking it easy as they don't see Nintendo as such a threat (as they make game centric machines) but as long as Sony is willing to sink money to make the PS3 successful MS will be willing to sink money to keep its success in check. The only way I see the 360 and Ps3 both living till the end is if the market completly splits. Others and Japan go to ps3. Na goes to 360. you are right a monopoly isnt normaly good but i see it like EA sees it. One console would allow everyon to have the same games instead of forcing us to buy multiple consoles to get every game. I think it will happen eventually but as long at there are significant generational leaps there will be room for different consoles to differentiate themselves and thus there will be competitors. Once the power of consoles is high enough that you cannot see any difference between them and the price difference at the start of a gen is minimal then you will see a consolidation, probably through a standardisation like the 3DO tried 10 years ago (the idea was sound but the timing was off by a couple decades at least). I believe 360 has had a price cut, and some new sku. They have also released thier flagship halo 3 which was suppose to kill the ps3 and it isnt dead yet. MS doesnt have much left. The ps3 hasnt even started releasing its big titles. Having big titles didn't save the N64 and GC, it made it sell better but it couldn't overcome the momentum of the PS1/PS2. Maybe these title will be enough for the PS3 to overcome the momentum of the 360 but even if it does it would pass it too far in the generation (halfway through) for the difference to be significantly greater than the difference between GC and Xbox as sales of less successful consoles slow down in the second half of the generation. | 
