A lot of the exclusives listed for the PS3 were sequels. Don't sequels typically give a much smaller bump in hardware sales, since generally speaking people often already bought the console for the original? (ex: SMG 2 vs. SMG). Anyway, I also agree that it's far too early to call this, as there is scant information on what either Nintendo or Microsoft have planned for 2011. I will say that I believe that for Sony what has the most potential to drive sales is Move, and Microsoft Kinect. I think the success of those add-ons will determine which one comes out on top next year. I am very curious to see what Nintendo has planned (I would assume they have something). They're just so damn secretive!
Bah!