The 360 may sell 50 million before the end of 2010.

[binary solo]

numonex said:

binary solo said:

Slimebeast said:

binary solo said:

I had it pegged at about 48.5-49 million by 1 Jan. But the Reach boost was 20% above my low end estimate for Reach week and 11% above my high end estimate. If 360 does 20% above my previous year end estimate then 50 million is on the cards. It's still a stretch but it's certainly more likely now than it was before I saw the Reach boost.

Kinect is the make or break factor for getting to 50 million by year end.

2008 is really the sales reference point for this rather than 2009 given the sales levels at the moment are more comparable to 2008.

So 21 Sept-3 jan 2008 sales were 6,242,497

2010 it needs to sell 6,666,700

So it needs to exceed 2008 sales by 6.8%. I always expected 360 to slightly undersell this period in 2008 so doing nearly 7% better is still a fairly tall order. But 360s and Reach effect has surprised me up to now so it could to keep surprising me.

As this is a sales site lets do a week by week comparison table with 2008 to see what 360 needs to sell each week from here on in to make it to 50 million on VGC (shipped is a guaranteed 50 million so it's not even an interesing subject for debate, great milestone though)

 

Date 2008 WE	2008 sales	Date 2010 WE	2010 needs	LTD
27/09/08	163,216	25/09/10	174,315	43,508,061
04/10/08	181,158	02/10/10	193,477	43,701,537
11/10/08	185,904	09/10/10	198,545	43,900,083
18/10/08	185,860	16/10/10	198,498	44,098,581
25/10/08	205,369	23/10/10	219,334	44,317,915
01/11/08	227,071	30/10/10	242,512	44,560,427
08/11/08	281,565	06/11/10	300,711	44,861,139
15/11/08	327,811	13/11/10	350,102	45,211,241
22/11/08	405,786	20/11/10	433,379	45,644,620
29/11/08	741,493	27/11/10	791,915	46,436,535
06/12/08	605,262	04/12/10	646,420	47,082,955
13/12/08	703,115	11/12/10	750,927	47,833,881
20/12/08	909,144	18/12/10	970,966	48,804,847
27/12/08	756,665	25/12/10	808,118	49,612,965
03/01/09	363,078	01/01/11	387,767	50,000,733
Total	6,242,497		6,666,987

So there you have it. Week by week sales comparison with 2008 for 360 to break 50 million on VGC by 1 Jan 2010. Notice, that unless 360 has some really big weeks prior ot December the 360 is going to need close to a 1 million week either on WE 18 Dec or WE 25 Dec. SHould be fascinating to watch this one unfold.

I think next week it will be close to or slightly above what it needs (Reach boost carry over). But for October I think it will be down, possily even below 2008 sales. So at Kinect launch it will be running behind what it needs and it will be very interesting to see if Kinect gets 360 across the line from a slightly lower position due to October shortfall.

One thing is for certain though. This will be 360's peak year to date. But if Kinect really takes off then with a 2011 price cut 360's peak year could be 2011.

You should make a full thread about that, tracking the X360 to 50 million before end of year with that table updated week for week.

You're welcome to use the table to start a "count down thread" (as long as you put in an acknowledgement at the bottom in fine print). I'm too slack and lazy to maintain a thread that would have to run for that long.

Squilliam, Seece or kowenicki are just a few of the dedicated forum posters who would be willing to run a count down to 50 million XBox 360  sales. 

360 only has to beat 2008 sales  by around 7% for the last 15 weeks of 2010 to reach 50 million sales. That is more than obtainable: momentum of 360 slim, Halo: Reach, Kinect, Call of Duty: Black Ops, Black Friday sales boost and Xmas holiday sales in December should all combine to help the 360 reach 50 million. I would not be surprised if the 360 beats 2008 sales final 15 weeks by around 10%. 

Black Friday and Xmas Holidays happened in 2008 too you know. So beating 2008 by 7% means beating 2008 Black Friday and Xmas holidays by 7%. Not a straight forward feat.

It's all on Kinect IMO. Reach, I think, has had it's boost (well next week too) primarily from the special edition sku. Black Ops won't drive HW sales all that much. PS3 and 360 have that the special pack with the RC vehicle so there isn't the same incentive to get a 360 for Black Ops.

Still if Move can boost PS3 by 15% at launch (without Japan) then Kinect should bump 360 HW by considerably more.