The 360 may sell 50 million before the end of 2010.

[binary solo]

I had it pegged at about 48.5-49 million by 1 Jan. But the Reach boost was 20% above my low end estimate for Reach week and 11% above my high end estimate. If 360 does 20% above my previous year end estimate then 50 million is on the cards. It's still a stretch but it's certainly more likely now than it was before I saw the Reach boost.

Kinect is the make or break factor for getting to 50 million by year end.

2008 is really the sales reference point for this rather than 2009 given the sales levels at the moment are more comparable to 2008.

So 21 Sept-3 jan 2008 sales were 6,242,497

2010 it needs to sell 6,666,700

So it needs to exceed 2008 sales by 6.8%. I always expected 360 to slightly undersell this period in 2008 so doing nearly 7% better is still a fairly tall order. But 360s and Reach effect has surprised me up to now so it could to keep surprising me.

As this is a sales site lets do a week by week comparison table with 2008 to see what 360 needs to sell each week from here on in to make it to 50 million on VGC (shipped is a guaranteed 50 million so it's not even an interesing subject for debate, great milestone though)

 

Date 2008 WE	2008 sales	Date 2010 WE	2010 needs	LTD
27/09/08	163,216	25/09/10	174,315	43,508,061
04/10/08	181,158	02/10/10	193,477	43,701,537
11/10/08	185,904	09/10/10	198,545	43,900,083
18/10/08	185,860	16/10/10	198,498	44,098,581
25/10/08	205,369	23/10/10	219,334	44,317,915
01/11/08	227,071	30/10/10	242,512	44,560,427
08/11/08	281,565	06/11/10	300,711	44,861,139
15/11/08	327,811	13/11/10	350,102	45,211,241
22/11/08	405,786	20/11/10	433,379	45,644,620
29/11/08	741,493	27/11/10	791,915	46,436,535
06/12/08	605,262	04/12/10	646,420	47,082,955
13/12/08	703,115	11/12/10	750,927	47,833,881
20/12/08	909,144	18/12/10	970,966	48,804,847
27/12/08	756,665	25/12/10	808,118	49,612,965
03/01/09	363,078	01/01/11	387,767	50,000,733
Total	6,242,497		6,666,987

So there you have it. Week by week sales comparison with 2008 for 360 to break 50 million on VGC by 1 Jan 2010. Notice, that unless 360 has some really big weeks prior ot December the 360 is going to need close to a 1 million week either on WE 18 Dec or WE 25 Dec. SHould be fascinating to watch this one unfold.

I think next week it will be close to or slightly above what it needs (Reach boost carry over). But for October I think it will be down, possily even below 2008 sales. So at Kinect launch it will be running behind what it needs and it will be very interesting to see if Kinect gets 360 across the line from a slightly lower position due to October shortfall.

One thing is for certain though. This will be 360's peak year to date. But if Kinect really takes off then with a 2011 price cut 360's peak year could be 2011.