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No contest at 50 imo.  PS3 may not close the gap until the 60m mark and should have a comfortable lead by 70m.  Anything farther in the future and we're into the Nextbox timeframe I believe.  The gap means less and less as we hypothetically travel through time anyway.  They are both poised to sell truckloads of software without worrying about userbase too much.  This is all without knowing what will actually happen with Move and Kinect, future price cuts and boosts from particular IPs. so it's a pretty rough guesstimate obviously.  It depends mostly on which co. is focused more on profit and who wants the silver medal.