EMEAA Up - 18 September 2010

[Reasonable]

Jadedx said:

Reasonable said:

BenVTrigger said:

steverhcp02 said:

BenVTrigger said:

Halo Reach is a JUGGERNAUT.  Major impact on hardware as I've been predicting for MONTHS even though people kept saying "Everyone who likes Halo already owns a 360.".

And PS3 above Wii 0_0

Nintendo is in trouble this holiday in regards to being a "dominant" system, especially with Kinect coming in November.

Actually i think people saying that have a more compelling argument as Reach only increased 50k over Halo 3.

If we had any idea of how many LE consoles sold or how many were produced for the region we could have a pretty good debate from both sides. But a few years after Halo 3 and a pretty even amount of Halo software i think its pretty safe to say the fanbase for Reach remained relatively flat all things considered.

Doesnt take anything away form the sales though. Its still ridiculous but anytime theres a LE bundle we have no idea other than tracking the software how many new users are gaming.

There were people all over this site claiming that Reach would move barely any hardware.  Its already provided a major jump and that is in EMEAA in America Halo and Xbox is a far stronger brand and will see a MAJOR increase.

Halo Reach is a massive hardware pusher.  This isn't up for debate.

Reach moved HW, no doubt about it, but to be fair I think when people talked about moving HW they were thinking new owners - i.e. the title would expand the Halo user base and with it the 360 install base.

With Halo Reach selling almost identically to Halo 3 the evidence strongly suggests the HW boost is mainly existing owners either buying Reach bundles or buying a 360s for Reach.

So, a nice HW boost for sure which MS will like, but going by the SW not that much of a growth in actual Halo install base so the HW boost should be both temporary and have little impact on forward SW - i.e. not that many new owners.

Still, a pretty decent boost nonetheless.  It's a pity there is no way to split the sales into regular and Reach edition consoles, though.

Looking elsewhere Wii continuing to dip slowly while PS3 gets a small boost from Move, which I didn't expect.  I figured with the September launch and fairly muted avertising in Europe it would sell mainly to existing owners - although I suppose it did, but I wasn't even expecting 15%.

I'll be curious to see how Kinect fares launching closer to the holiday season.

I stopped reading after that, that same stupid montra is getting really annoying. I bet people are gonna be spouting that BS 2 or 3 years from now.

Right, I'll keep this short.  EDIT : well, short'ish...

One, I'm not repeating a mantra I'm explaining that, if you actually really look at the numbers - more on them in a moment - it's actually a fairly compelling conclusion and therefore one that is being fairly drawn by some people.

Two, this is a site about numbers and what can be concluded from them.  Sure some will say Reach is fail because blah blah blah and others will say it's the best ever for the same blah blah blah unfounded reasons.

Three, I'm here for the numbers (and elements of the community) and don't give a biased damn one way or the other.

 

Now, the numbers.

Halo Reach, according to the numbers, has sold only 50,000 more despite a HW boost larger than that 50,000 and a much larger install base when Halo 3 launch.  Now, first, so you can relax,  Reach has sold fantastically going by the numbers, a huge launch in EMEAA and proof the series is a popular as ever, but... there is clearly something odd going on with such a flat level of growth (particularly if you look at growth from Halo CE to Halo 2 to Halo 3 where the series has steadily enlarged the player base) with a HW boost plus a much larger install base than when Halo 3 launched.

So, what are the possibilities?  Let's consider 3 that spring to mind.

1 - the numbers are wrong for SW but right for HW.  Reach is undertracked and will get an adjustment up which will then nicely show a SW boost due to larger install base and the HW boost.  Until this happens - if it does - we can only use the numbers we have.  Personally, the SW does seem a little low next to HW so I wouldn't be surprised to see an adjustment up, but until then let's move on to other possibilities.

2 - the numbers are right for both SW and HW (within acceptable error tolerances).  This would strongly imply Halo franchise has more or less plataued in EMEAA (unless, based on next week, we see the title having a stronger second week), and the HW boost was a mix of

• existing owners buying Reach special editions - i.e. double dipping on HW
• some new gamers to the Halo franchise
• plus, probably, some people who had sold their 360's sometime after Halo 3 and were buying a new one to get Reach
• and, finally with regard specifically to Reach, some existing 360 owners using Reach as a nice impetus to get a 360s
• finally, finally, some of the HW boost would be people buying a 360s but having no interest in Halo.

In other words, a strong chance a fair bit of the HW boost was people double dipping because otherwise the HW boost and relatively flat sales compared to Halo 3 numbers don't balance out

3 - the numbers are wrong for HW and right for SW.  This seems less likely, but of course another way to explain the difference is to take the view the SW number is right but the HW number is wrong and too high.  A smaller boost would more readily fit realtively flat SW boost.

 

So you see, with such flat SW and a big HW boost there is a missmatch and while some are simply using it to fuel their hate, it doesn't make the missmatch itself dissapear or become invalid for discussion.  I was merely pointing out the idea that the HW boost may well, given the SW/HW numbers, contain a fair amount of existing owners double dipping on the HW side is fair to assume and in no way some mantra of hate.  It is a justified opinion to have based on the numbers and without any bias.

A final point on that, who do you think special editions are aimed at?  New customers?  No!  Not for Halo nor indeed any special edition.  They are aimed at the hardcore fans who will always double dip.  This is nothing new and nothing specific to Halo.  MS release a special Reach bundle knowing it will appeal most to existing fans who will double dip.  20th Centuary Fox release Alien special edition sets on a regular basis knowing the franchise remains (just about) viable to support regular double dipping.

PS3 God of War consoles are for the hardcore who almost certainly have a PS3 and will double dip for the special edition console.

Sure, some new owners will pick up the special editions, but unless something odd is going on then generally the majority by far will be pre-ordered and purchased by existing owners.

Basically, everywhere there was a Reach special bundle with a custom 360 console you will see a lot of double dipping.  Nothing to be paranoid about and nothing to get all huffy about.

Now, are some jumping on this kind of thing unfairly?  Sure, but call them out for their motives, don't try and argue against double dipping itself because it's a given with such a special edition and you're almost certainly wrong to think the HW boost is fueled purely by new owners of 360 consoles.  That is very, very unlikely at this point.

Now, peace, call out the genuine haters and otherwise stick to reasonable possibilities around the numbers themselves.  If you have genuine ideas as to how their could be a decent HW spike with relatively flat SW numbers vs Halo 3 I'll certainly listen to it and if it makes sense I'll certainly reconsider anything I may currently think.