I can't. There are far too many contingent factors for any of us to make an accurate assessment - which was my original point.
As for my 'explanation'; you may dissagree, but I feel that simply equating the lesser sales of a particular title with a lessened userbase in total is irresponsible if not incongruous for a number of reasons.
For one, 'niche' titles such as the Wind Waker and 3D Mario have their own appeal. By catering to people that enjoy such titles, Nintendo is not just profiting of the games themselves, but in effect expanding their userbase.
Furthermore, 'original', 'experimental' or 'artistic' titles might bring good will for the entire company. Sony's Team ICO comes to mind, here.
There is also the fact that game developers are more apt to create good games when they are passionate about the games they make.
