Michael-5 said:
evolution_1ne said:
Michael-5 said:
I don't beleive the PS Move will push many consoles, I think most consumers interested in the Move already have a PS3 and are looking for a way to further improve the experience for games like Killzone 3. Most articles I read, even VGChartz themselves don't expect Move to push many consoles. Thats why I left it out.
Before the PS3 Slim was released, the 360 had a record lead in terms of a sales difference with the PS3, and sales were in favor of the 360 throught all of 2009 until the Slim PS3 was released. Then all of a sudden PS3 regains 3.7 million units of that lead. Not one time before August 2009 did either console make such a drastic lead in sales over the other console in a short period of time. The 360 did gain 2.2 million in fall of 2008, and the PS3 gained 1 million from September 2007-September 2008. Those were the biggest changes.
YoY PS3 is up from 2009, but this is only because the Slim Effect was still pushing consoles (That PS3 slim basically made the 360 look obsolete). Now that the 360 Slim is out, and MS is boosting one of their strongest fall line-ups, I think the competition may hurt Sony this fall, thus having sales drop from 2009 levels.
You mentioned that before the 360 Slim boost 360 sales dropped below 90k, look at PS3 sales before the PS3 Slim. They were also 90k weekly, or below in some instances.
You see if neither manufacturer released a Slim model, 360 would probably be outselling the PS3 right now.
Last year, what fall lineup did PS3 have, Uncharted 2, God of War Collection, Ratchet & Clank, Demon Souls, Assassin's Creed 2, and Modern Warfare 2 right? Sony has had a much stronger line-up in past years and yet it was outsold by the 360 (looking at 2008).
On going on, but essentially my comment was that 2009 was Sony's peak year with the PS3. PS3 sales were never above 10 million before that, and they only jumped because of the PS3 Slim. Yes the PS3 Slim effect boosted sales until June 2010, but ever since then the 360 Slim has been taking the spotlight. The PS3 will not have as strong of a 2010 for the same reason the 360 had a reletivly weak 2009.
The 360 had a weak 2009 (compred to 2008) because a lot of it sales were lost to the PS3 Slim. If it weren't for the PS3 Slim, both consoles would have had peak years, but more in the lines of 11.5-12 million for the 360 and 10.5-11 million for the PS3.
Also the 360 Slim was the reason for the 360 boost prior to Halo, but now that Fall 2010 is kicking in, it's not going to be the only boost in sales. Kinect will push at least 500k worth of consoles, and then there is Halo 3, Fable 3, and basically the same third party lineup from 2008 whne the 360 had a strong fall. With the 360 already 1.1-.17 million units ahead YoY from 2009, and 2008 respectivly, and one of the strongest fall line-ups, the 360 should have a peak year in excess of 12 million, maybe even 13 million consoles. This will definatly hurt PS3 sales for 2010.
So yes although the PS3 Slim is ahead YoY by about 1.4 million units, most of that lead was due to a very strong Spring Line-up and the ongoing PS3 Slim boost. Now the PS3 has a reletivly weak fall (compared to past PS3 fall line-ups), the spotlight for gaming is on Microsoft, and I have a feeling Nintendo will pull some trick, maybe a price drop? PS3 sales will be down Year on Year (YoY) every week except for maybe the week GT5 comes out, and VGChartz has said so in the past before too.
These next few years will mark the decline in popularity for all consoles, so I think the PS3 is finished with any more 12 Plus million years.
|
right, so at the most mass market price, that has caused the biggest boost for both the 360 and the wii, will not only have no effect for the ps3 but it will do less, than it's previous years in sales........ yup my comment stands, these next few years will be a ball.
but to be nice I'll just leave it at wishful thinking because there is absolutely no logic behind it
you know, it's mostly 360 fans with the most narrow minded perspective on things.... you do know in spite of the recent boost in the 360 sales, especially when the 360 was putting up it's biggest numbers (june-july) ps3 sales were still increasing week over week, it's not the ps3 was losing interest and 360 was gaining, it was the fact that the 360 was just doing better, and doing better for obvious reasons.
and 360 outsold the ps3 in 08 because it got a price drop to ( lmao) 199. and at that time the lowest end ps3 was......... 399, but yeah you go on and keep thinking people just liked it better XD. it's lead was only the lead it got from the head start. which is a lead it's barely holding on to despite being EXTREMELY cheaper than the ps3 for the ENTIRE generation., it is in these facts I've come to the conclusion that no matter what time the 199 price cut happens, when it does the ps3 will have it's peak year.
oh and the ps3 was the most expensive console in 09.......for the ENTIRE YEAR
|
The Mass market price of $200, the price that aided the PS1, PS2, N64, etc the most has been inflated due to the drop in US currency, and inflation. $200 almost 10 years ago is more comparable to $300 now, and the $300 price tag has boosted PS3 and Wii sales (Wii launching at $280) the most.
For the $200 price tag, first of all only the 360 arcade is sold at $200, and that only acount for about 15% of 360 sales since August 2009. So this "key price" is not the price that has boosted 360 sales (and if you look at jumps in sales from the Slim 360, the arcade jump was about 10x smaller then the Elite jump). So if the PS3 has a price drop to $200, the 360 will match it, and an arcade 360 Kinect bundle will also drop in price, this further imposing Kinect onto the Wii casual audience. Also an arcade 360 will drop to $120-$150. So a price drop to $200 will aid both the 360 and PS3 equally.
As I beleive it (and your free to beleive what you feel), is that Slim models boost sales much significantly more because the Slim consoles are already at that "mass market" price tag. No console in the past has ever recorded peak sales after 4 years of launch, PS2 had peak sales on its second full year on the market, same with the Wii, and the DS did it on its third year. The 360 had it's natural peak after 3 years, and so did the PS3, and the only reason why the 360 is re-peaking is because of this new Slim model, and potentially Kinect.
I know the PS3 will have a slightly different sales curve from the PS2, PSP and other consoles, but if EVERY console peaks within 3 full years, most likely PS3 will follow. This is very logical, and I don't understand how you just ignore this.
I don't insult your comments, so please don't regard mine as "wishful thinking." I provide reasoning behind all of my points. your free to beleive what you feel, but you really can't classify my supporting arguements as false. Everything I say is true, it's predicting future sales baised on my logic that may be false. However I just follow trends, I'm no professional analyst, so following trends is the best thing I can do, and all home consoles will start to decline in yearly sales. The Wii is already begining to struggle, why do you think the PS3 and 360 won't follow?
Now your just classifying me as a 360 fan, I'm just being realistic, and your being insulting. You seem have poor debating skills thats why you are resorting to classifying me, and undermining my opinion by saying I am "narrow minded." I understand the PS3 is popular, I know it will continue to sell well, but all home consoles are over the hill. With no large scale new franchises being released for consoles outside the Wii, and following trends of any console prior (especially matching PS3 with PSP trends as they are almost identical), It's very plausible that sales will start to drop. PS3 will sell well, just never again over 12 million in a single year. Maybe 11 million this year, 9-11 million next, and a significant fall in 2012.
In 2008 the PS3 arcade (which accounts only for 10% of sales in 2008), was sold for $199. The 360 outsold the PS3 by 2 million that fall. Thats a lot more then 10%.
In 2009 PS3 had a price drop and was sold for $300 in the US, the same price as the X-Box 360 Elite. The $200 arcade only accounts for about 15% of sales since the elimination of the Pro model (in August 2009).
I think this debate is over, I think you lack the ability to dispute my claims, and although I admit I may be wrong about future sales, you really haven't provided much of a counter arguement. I could easily say PS3 fans have a "narrow mind" constantly thinking the PS3 will outsell the 360 in 2-3 years time (look at some old threads, this ideology has been around since the PS3 first came out), but except for right there, I don't.
Beleive what you like, but I have provided a very plausible, and reasonable prediction for future console sales. I never said I was 100% right, no one can make predictions that will always be true, but generally when youfollow gaming trends, your likely to be right.
Good day.
P.S. I own both consoles, and I have basically all the good exclusives on both consoles. I also borrow a friends Wii from time to time (but I admit I only have 2 games and I get to borrow Mario Kart when I get the Wii, I stupidly waiting on a backward compatible successor). I own a DS, and currently I'm borring my friends PSP to play some PSP games I've wanted to beat for a while. Before this generation of gaming, I owned EVERY Nintendo, Sony and Sega console with the exception of the Sega Saturn, Game Gear, and the Virtual Boy. Been gaming for a long enough time to realize limiting myself to one console is stupid. I don't think I have a bias, except maybe towards Nintendo and the Wii (I seem to be more optimistic then others about it). I see myself protecting the 360 more then the PS3 because this website has a lot more Wii and PS3 fans that like to attack it and give a one sided opinion. Nintendo fans seem to be a lot more realistic, and don't really attack the PS3 or 360 (I've even seen them support PS3/360 arguements so kudos to you guys). PS3 and PSP are great consoles, and I do expect them to do well, just expecting peak sales during the 4th full year on the market is silly, especially since ALL previous consoles peaked within 2-3 years. I don't think PS3 and 360 are exceptions, and as trends are going it's very likely that the PS3 peaked in 2009, and the 360 had it's natural peak in 2008.
I mean why am I being classified as a 360 fan anyway? I own both a 360 and a PS3 and the only reason I have soo many more 360 games is because I'm a cheap bum and 90% of the games I buy, I get used. multiconsole 360 games in North America, are significantly cheaper then multiconsole PS3 games, mainly because there are twice as many 360's so twice as many used games. So if there is any reason why I would be classified a 360 fan it's because used games are cheaper? I may also prefer Halo, and Gears over PS3 shooters, and Forza over GT, but I think Heavy Rain is a much better game then Alan Wake, and on the Action/Adventure platform PS3 severly outperforms the 360. I'm just not a fan of Action Adventure games, if it's not Mario, Donkey Kong, Metroid (As a FPA title), Conker or anything by Nintendo/Rare I'm just not interested (hence my admitted Nintendo bias).
I mean pre-360, I mainly played on the PS2 and Gamecube and didn't even touch the X-Box. I only got my 20 game library after purchasing my 360, where each game was $2-$15. I haven't even played them all yet. Before that I was mainly Nintendo. This is stupid how people classify someone else, simply to undermine them... This was a good debate, now ruined....
So if you want to debate with me in the future, do not resort to classifying me and undermining me. Once this happens debates just turn into arguements, and I don't care for silly forum arguements, I try to be civil.
|
