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I think it will overtake before GT5, then overtake again in December sometime.  Even if the first HD GT moves the 300-400k some people are expecting it won't all be in EMEAA and the shiny black 360 Kinect will be the newer, hotter commodity in the weeks before what's-his-name's birthday.  Don't swear! 

The good news is those who celebrated PS3 passing 360 in Others earlier can break out the bubbly at least twice more this gen.  The way things are going they should get a case!  The end result still looks like a PS3 LT win in EMEAA but maybe not a huge one.  Then again whadoeyeno?