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I don't know about this prediction.  I mean I see Kinect selling maybe 1 mil (though I would guess more in line with 500K-750K) units the first week.  And something tells me the word of mouth isn't going to the greatest.  Nor will the gaming line-up be that spectacular to support another 2 mil units sold in less than 2 months.  Then there's the fact that Kinect will overwhelmingly be ignored by Japan.  But, I guess we will have to wait and see.