360 Closing 43M - Will it Beat 50M by Years End ?

[binary solo]

Michael-5 said:

binary solo said:

Michael-5 said:

Solid_Snake4RD said:

daveJ said:

I think the xbox360 will reach 50million easy maybe as high as 52million

At the moment the xbox360 has shipped 41.7million consoles so it needs to ship 8.3million in 6 months.

Last year it shipped 7.3million in the 6 months of 2009, so close.

This year though it has 3 extra things, in order of importance

1. slim/pricecut

2. kinect

3. halo reach

They will ship from 8.5-12million consoles

12m.........................lmao

i don't think 360 has sold that much in single year itself

No it hasn't, 2008 was it's best year at 11.01 million. However, 6.55 million of those sales in 2008 came from the 4 month period at the end of the year (Sept-Dec). The 360 currently has sold 5.84 million units in the first 8 months of the year, and is looking to have it's strongest holiday yet. With the Slim Effect, Halo: Reach, Kinect, and Fable 3, 2010 is looking like the best fall 360 has had since 2007.

I mean before 2009 PS3's record sales was 9.72 million, and mainly because of the PS3 Slim, sales sky rocketed. Sales don't have to sky rocket for the 360 to surpass PS3's strongest year, and the 50 million point. The 360 just has to beat it's 2008 fall, and with the Slim Effect, a moderatly hyped peripheral, and what is most likely the best selling HD exclusive yet, it can probably jump well over 13 million yearly sales (and thus over 50 million total sales, maybe even 51 million).

I'm skeptical, I think 49 million is a safe assumption, 50 million is likely, but very dependant on Kinect and Halo, and 51 million will only happen if Halo, Fable, and Kinect are all well received, especially Kinect. 52 million is pushing it, possible, but very unlikly, Kinect will have to really surprise me.

Slim PS3 didn't boost salesd all that much. I think PS3 sales in Q4 2009 would have been fairly similar if the phat remained and it got the $100 price cut. I think slim gave it somewhat of an extra push, but it was at least 85% price cut that did it. 360s will translate to higher 360 sales than 2009, but I would be surprised if it translated into sales >2008. If they whipped out a $50 price cut at the time Kinect launched that would throw all predictions out the window.

If 85% of the PS3 sales boost was due to a price cut last year, why bid 360 sales only go up by about 15-20% despite getting the same price cut? How come with the 360 Slim, sales jump during the weeks the Slim model was introduced to EMEAA/Japan, and again for the Slim arcade in all regions. If it's jump were mainly due to price, wouldn't the entire jump be from day 1 Americas launch?

I mean if discounts make that huge of a difference, in the analysis of 360S and PS3S, why did they allign sales from the launch of the Slim model, and not the day of the price cut on old SKU?

Also why did only the PS3 price cut to $300 significantly benefit PS3 sales? Before that Sony mande PS3 price cuts, but sales never went above 360's. At $400 the 360 outsold the PS3 also at $400, so why did a drop to $300 only affect the weaker selling console?

You guys don't give the Slim effect the credit it deserves, only because of a PS3 Slim PS3 sales were above 360, now it's back to normal. Even when sales balance out again after the holidays it will be in favor of 360 (but by less then 10k a week).

A pity we don't have the graphing function as it would make it easier. If we did then you could see at a glance PS3 vs 360 weekly sales since PS3's launch and you'd know that your statement "Before that Sony mande PS3 price cuts, but sales never went above 360's." is incorrect.

Basically when 360 Elite sku = PS3 entry level sku then PS3 outsells 360 WW, especially if the Arcade sku is $100 cheaper than entry level PS3. When 360 Elite is cheaper than entry level PS3 and 360 Arcade goes to >/= $150 cheaper then 360 outsells PS3. In 2008 PS3 was outselling 360 for the first ~9 months: PS3 5.53 million vs 360 4.62 million, then the 360 price dropped and weekly sales swung vastly in 360's favour so that 360 ended the year with more sales than PS3: PS3 9.38M, 360 10.65M. No slim, just a price cut. And of course the reverse happened in 2009.

You say it's back to normal, but there really hasn't been a "normal" between PS3 and 360, because everytime there's a significant change the weekly sales trend alters. It's clear that PS3 has had significant periods where it has outsold 360 on a weekly basis prior to the PS3 Slim. So it's simply erroneous to suggest that PS3 Slim caused an abberation in the relative sales between 360 and PS3. There hasn't been 2 consecutive holiday periods (Late Oct - end Dec) when PS3 has outsold 360, or 360 outsold PS3. This year could have been the year PS3 got 2 holiday periods in a row, but 360s Kinect could see the alternating pattern remain. Though I think 2010 will be closer than either 2008 and 2009, including being closer for the Wii.

And 360 only got a virtual price cut in 2009. They simply ditched the Elite sku, beefed up the Pro and re-named it Elite. Importantly in 2009 the Arcade didn't get a price cut. So MS collapsed 3 sku price levels down to 2.  The difference between the PS3 price cut and the 360 sku adjustments was that there was no PS3 at the $299 price prior to the price cut, but there was a 360 sku at the $299 price, and there was also a 360 sku below that price.

And this time 'round it's still not just a pure slim effect. It must be noted that the 360 phats got clearance sale price reductions, which for a proportion of the market put the 360 at a clear price advantage over the PS3. I have no idea how many clearance 360's got sold, but they likely represented a non-negligible % of overall 360 sales in the last few months.