It can help, but it will require someone (MS) to get the word out that GTA4 is both available for the 360 on day 1, and that it will have exclusive content.
Remember that most gamers are relatively casual - they don't prowl online boards, don't really know the specs of each system (and may often be mislead as to system capabilities), don't know developers or histories. Odds are many PS2 owners think that GTA is a Playstation (if not Sony) franchise and will thus turn to the PS3 first to play it.
That said, the best selling GTA sold "only" 13 m copies on a system with 120m consoles sold. Even if we pretend that all 13 m copies went to "hardcore" GTA fans (though why they all wouldn't pick up the later installments would throw that idea in doubt) and that all 13m have not yet chosen a PS3 or 360, and that all 13 m are ready and willing to spend $400 on a game system in order to play GTA4... then you would need a decisive split (at least 60-40) in favor of the 360 to noticably affect the race. Since the actual numbers of people who chose a console on this is likely to be far less, I would say MS needs an 80-20 split in it's favor to get any noticable boost over the PS3.
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