As I said in another thread, there is almost certainly a larger - sunstantially larger- reservoir of PS2 owners than former XBox owners who has not yet committed to this generation. This would make things much easier for Sony, as all they need to do is tap their own fanbase,where Microsoft will need to find a way to lure them to the darkside. Even a 55-45 split in Sony's favor will likely result in the PS3 outpacing the 360.
While it is not impossible for MS to drain that pool, they are going to have to make a better effort than in 2007, where they were hobbled by the RROD (which stymied a price cut, which stagnated sales in the first half of the year, and allowed the PS3 to stumble on a price structure that isn't chasing fans away). 2007 was MS chance to absoutely bury the PS3, but they flubbed it, most notably at E3, when the Halo360 landed with a thud, and the audience was left wondering "where's the price cut? where's the price cut?" Sony provided it (twice) and while not in wonderful shape, has managed to keep pace with the 360. Now that Sony is off the mat, it's going to be that much harder to put down.
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