When will PS3 have its PEAK YEAR?! (In terms of sales)

[Michael-5]

CGI-Quality said:

Michael-5 said:

CGI-Quality said:

I didn't say the majority vote is correct, I said if certain pieces fall into place, the majority vote may end up correct. Why would 2010 be the peak year? Who's to say a slimmer model is out of the question? What about a price drop to $249, or $199? When was the PS3's life cut to just 8 years? Have you also forgotten Gran Turismo 5?

Many factors challenge your prediction.

I feel it's unlikely for 2011 to be the peak year for PS3. If you follow the trend in sales, PS3 sales are already curving down, it's hit it's natural peak in about 2009, and the Slim boosted the PS3 to really make the peak up there.

A second Slim model is possible, but the purpose of a Slim model is to re-energize sales. The current Slim PS3 was launched during PS3's natural peak (following PSP sales curves which PS3 basically mimics), if a futre PS3 redesign is launched, it will simply extend the life of the console.

As for price drops, they boost sales, but not as significantly as redesigned consoles.

Sony anticipated the PS3 to replace the PS2, they expected significantly more sales, and they didn't get it. They had to remove backward compatibility for PS3 in order to promote PS3 game purchases because back in 2008, PS3 software revenues were very very low.

As for Gran Turismo 5, thats the last game sony has to offer that hasn't seen a PS3 interation. After that, the PS3 has less to offer (as in new games) as it used to. There are no more new IP's which we have known about for 5 years that Sony has still to make. Yes I'm aware of The Last Guardian, and Twisted Metal, but those types of games only sell about a million copies, they wont budge the market at all.

Also GT5 won't boost console sales significantly, and it won't boost console sales for a period longer then a month.

Anyway, it's a matter of opinion. I just bais my opinion off trends. PS3 sales are declining already, PS3 sales follow PSP trends very closely, and there is already talk of successor consoles. In the history of gaming, no console has experienced peak sales beyond it's half life, and if new consoles come by 2013, and PS3 sells until 2015, that would mean that this is the last full year Sony has before it reaches it's half-life.

Unless GT5 comes with a PS3 bundle, and PS3 drops its price to $200 THIS FALL, I don't see the PS3 selling any better year on year over 2009 in the future. You can hold this against me if you like, but please come back to me in a couple years.

a. Redesigns rarely boost sales more than price drops. Not only that but it's hard to prove otherwise (especially since the 360S is the only example there is - and there's still no guarantee that it's effect will last as long as the price drop of 2008 did).

b. Sony wanting PS3 to replace PS2 (link would be nice) means nothing when discussing the peak. Things change, feelings change, trends change....i.e.: irrelevant.

c. You're too quick to generalize. How is Gran Turismo the last of previous PlayStation franchises that Sony has to offer? Hello.....Twisted Metal? Besides, you have no clue what old franchises they could bring back, so best not to jump to that conclusion (and it also won't mean much to the console's peak).

d. Gran Turimo's boost - who knows? More speculation but there WILL be a boost - complimenting my theory. You also mention a bundle, Gran Turismo always has bundles. Have you not seen the one for Japan?

e. The first sentence in your second to last paragraph is the bottom line (though the way you talk, it hardly sounds "just" opinionated).

Edit: You also didn't answer several of my questions from the last post.

Sorry, if I missed a question, just repost it. I do want to answer all your questions.

a. If you actually compare numbers, the 360 Slim design boost got a larger increase in sales then a price drop. Both are meaningful, but the redesign does push more consoles. It's hard to analyse the PS3 redesign as it came with a price drop.

b. I feel that Sony removed backward compatibility with the PS3 to cut off PS2 software sales, and to cut costs. I have heard a few "expert" opinions by analysts to support my beleif, but I don't make it a habit to save every link I see in the hopes of winning a debate in a forum. The only purpose I intended by bringing up backward compatibility was that at the time PS2 was still selling well, and it was infringing on PS3's market share. PS3 is nowhere nearly as popular as the PS2 was.

c. I have a PS1, and Twisted Metal is a small franchise. I'm a huge fan of Twisted Metal on PS1 and Black for PS2, but the PS3 version looks bad. I'm hoping it's just pre-production and unpolished. The most popular Twisted Metal was #2, which sold 2.27 million, then the other console Twisted Metals sold 1.25-1.51 million. Not exactly a mega franchise, and it won't adjust sales significantly. GT is the last big Sony franchise awaiting a proper PS3 interation, I've looked into it and I just can't think of any other games that would likely push console that aren't already on the PS3.

d. GT5 will boasts sales, no doubt about that, especially in EMEAA and Japan. However one game will not make up for the difference the Slim PS3 model was released. You know before the PS3 Slim, 360 outsold the PS3 every consecutive week, except for big game launches. GT5 will be big, but nowehre nearly as big as a console redesign, and GT will probably boost PS3 sales throughout 2011, not so much at launch. (It's not a headstrong game, meaning it's sales are very spread over time, unlike CoD and Halo which get a bulk of their sales week 1).

e. How come? I understand I may be completly wrong about my predictions, and I respect your beleifs. I just base my opinions on common trends. I've been keeping up with VGChartz data since early 2008, I've looked at sales for a moderatly long enough time to understand how significantly a game boosts a consoles sales, and I understand to a degree how consoles sell. I know what facors boosts consoles sales, and I've seen first hand for the last 3 years, what big changes cause sales increments. In the last 2 years I noticed that the PS3/360 Slim effects have been huge, and push significantly more consoles then just a price cut, a mega franchise, and a good fall lineup. I'm by far not an expert, but I do my research, and try not to make claims without any supporting evidence.

No matter how this debate ends, I am not telling you that your wrong, I am just saying that I disagree, and I just like to explain why.

BTW, what do you mean by "just" opinionated?