Pachter is discounting the effect of Donkey Kong Country Returns, Kirby, and Epic Mickey after Thanksgiving in the United States. Due to these three games, I call it a toss up between Nintendo and Microsoft in holiday hardware sales favoring the 360 due to Kinect.
As for software sales, I think the HD twins will beat the Wii quite handily with their exclusives (Halo: Reach, Fable 3 and Gran Turismo 5), Call of Duty: Black Ops, Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood, Fallout: New Vegas, Red Dead Redemption and Medal of Honor. I think we may see a couple of suprises with the software for Move and Kinect where at least one game from both becomes quite popular.
I am on the fence regarding the reissue of Goldeneye for the Wii. I expect 2 to 3 million, but nowhere near the 9 million of the original. Times have changed and Nintendo's online is not as popular as either Xbox Live or PSN.
