Understanding Halo

[Mendicate Bias]

gekkokamen said:

Michael-5 said:

First of all, great comment. Been meaning to reply to this, but I've been away.

It's validity is debatable, then again most things are.

What your saying is that Halo will pull what Resistance did, it sold well in it's first game because of a small game library, but now that the library has expanded, it won't do as well. However, explain the Pre-orders, they are 1.5x Halo 3, and over 2 times as great as ODST's, and the game still has 2 weeks to build pre-orders. Halo: Reach will be the first game to ever break 2 million pre-orders. Bigger library aside, Halo is a crowning title, it's going to be one of the best rated 360 exclusives, it's going to have one of the best FPS campaigns, it's going to have one of the best online multiplayer modes, and best of all, it will be the best co-op (Unless Gears 3 surprises).

Your other point is that Modern Warfaret monopolized the market, but thats not entirely true. Modern Warfare trailers and previews flooded the internet before Halo 3, and it's debut trailer has been one of the top 10 viewed trailers on Gametrailers for years. Also When Modern Warfare came out 2 months after Halo 3, that should have cut Halo sales, but it didn't. Even when websites were saying Call of Duty 4 was getting more matches played then Halo 3, Halo was still keeping pace with sales.

Even now, Halo 3 is the second most played X-Box game online, comming second only to Modern Warfare 2, a game that was released last year. If Call of Duty truely monopolized the market, why is Halo 3, after being out for 3 years, charting more games online then World at War, Modern Warfare 1, Lost Planet 2, Gears of War 2, Fable 2, Forza Motorsport 3,, Halo 3: ODST? Halo 3 is a 3 year old game, and it's being played more then every other game except for the recent Modern Warfare title.

As for competition, I'm sick of hearing people say that Halo 3 had less competition. Thats completely false. It has Modern Warfare, Mass Effect, The Orange Box, Bioshock, Metroid Prime 3, and Uncharted to compete with. Six other shooters (Mass Effect being half shooter), all of them released between August and November of 2007. What competition does Halo Reach have? Black Ops, Medal of Honor and Metroid: Other M? Metroid: Other M isn't even a shooter, it's predominantly 2D. Yes there is also Vanquish, and Quantum Theory, but those games are not garenteed 9/10 or greater ratings, and most likely will not sell too well.

So Halo 3 had 6 games to compete with, Halo Reach only has 2.

You also mentioned that new gamers were buying lots of 360's then with Halo 3, because of an "expansion period." Well guess what, even more people buy 360's now, 2010 is looking to be 360's peak year in sales. The 360 is selling exactly 33.3% better in 2010 then it did in 2007, and with the recently released Slim 360, isn't the 360 market going through an even bigger "expansion period?"

Also please explain why Halo: Reach pre-orders are higher then Modern Warfare 2 pre-orders were, despite Halo: Reach being released after the slowest month of the year in terms of game sales/pre-orders (August)?

May I ask you how reliable is this pre-order data? What is the source of this pre-order data and which retailers does it comprehend?

Even if a 2 million pre-order estimate becomes true, sales could be very heavy front-loaded.

Everything you say about Halo Reach becoming "best" at something, is just opinion and nothing else, I won't comment on any of that, and it's irrelevant to this discussion you feel that way. You even underlined "will", like it's some sort of certainty. I guess I'm talking with a very passionate fan, so I'm not sure if I'll be losing my time continuing this conversation, since it's pretty much determined by now Halo Reach can't do no wrong in your eyes.

I never mentioned the word "monopolized", or implied such thing. And if I didn't it's because I know everything you said in that paragraph, and I reiterate: Modern Warfare Fever was just developing, so of course it didn't cut into Halo 3 sales that much.

The competition you list is nothing of the sort. Head to Head competition is a game that shares same genre and gameplay, in this case the MULTIPLAYER component being a major factor. All those games you mentioned Bioshock, ME, etc. first of all they weren't nearly half as popular as COD4 or Halo3. Second: they weren't online multiplayer shooters. I shouldn't have to mention a third, but some of them like ME and Bioshock were new franchises.

You must consider this : Just as Halo has built a fanbase since the original Xbox, other game series have also built very a very impressive fanbase in the last 3 years. A fanbase as large as Halo's shouldn't be expected to grow out of proportion, and it has already got two iterations this gen. Indirect strong competition will have even stronger fanbase support this time around against Halo Reach (compared to 3). Games like Fallout New Vegas, AC: Brotherhood, and Fable 3 will surely catch their share this holiday season.

Halo 3 gave a large and prolonged boost to 360 hardware sales, and a big part of that was because it was the first current-gen Halo. Halo Reach will indeed boost sales but not in the same way #3 did. You claim the 360 is having/will have its bigger year yet, I wouldn't know for sure, but still that's irrelevant. Why irrelevant? 'cause that doesn't mean the majority of those new owners will be a locked-Reach sale. Back in 2007, there were people jumping on a new 360 just for the Halo 3 fever. This time those fans will "double dip", there won't be as many 360s sold because of Halo Reach and you should see it in the attach ratio. The audience is just a lot more segregated this time, it's a simple fact.

 

I am not, by any means saying Halo Reach won't have monstrous sales and rave reviews, it should and very likely will. I think I'm being fair. after explaining my objective analysis, in not expecting too much of Halo Reach like beating its predecesor in LTD sales.

 

 

 

So basically you berate him for saying Halo Reach will be massive because you say it is his opinion despite the fact that he quotes pre-order numbers and cites evidence from past sales trends and then you say that the 360 user base is segregated now despite having absolutely no evidence to back you up?

We know you don't trust the pre-order data, despite it having been highly accurate for other HD games including MW2 but cut the crap and stop being a hypocrite when you argue. If you don't want to argue opinions then give us some raw data to prove otherwise.

He gave you his points, Halo 3 has more pre-orders than MW2, Halo 3 has been in the top 2 played games on xbl for 3 years and the 360 is selling more than it ever has which will clearly cause its new users to buy the newest game in the 360's most popular exclusive series.

So give us your data or stop arguing semantics which you seem to have such a hard time defining.