Yakuzaice said:
Of course it would sell better, my point is that it wouldn't have nearly the effect that the 2G budget release had. If there was such a demand for MH3, they would have ordered more, or there would have been a budget release by now. The 2G "the best" release came out a mere 7 months later, and sold a ton because the original game hadn't collapsed in price to the degree Tri has. I know SW2 didn't do a million with its original release, like I said "(granted the second one only did it through re-releases)" What "multiple" musou games were there? Gundam Musou was the only one, it outsold Samurai Warriors 3, and it launched on the massive PS3 userbase of 750k. I pretty much agree with your third paragraph outside of the fact that we'll probably never agree about the performance of MH3. I'm not really sure of your point with Animal Crossing though. Dragon Quest X could come out on the PS3, bomb horribly, and it would still probably double MGS4's sales. Would that make the PS3 a mainstream console? Nintendo has proven themselves to be able to sell their software even with really small userbases. The N64 had comparable Smash numbers, better Zelda and 3D mario numbers, and somewhat worse Mario Kart numbers. Does that mean it could have sold DQVII in line with the rest of the series? I still stand by my original statement that nothing has proven that a Wii FFXIII would have done over 2 million. So far the Wii has only proven itself to sell third party games that are niche (by your definition) and casual. |
In all fairness, P2G's original MSRP was already almost half what Tri was, a whopping 35,000 yen less to be exact. And that was for the base pack, for the CCPro bundle you can add another 11,000 yen. If anything, I'd argue MH3 was overpriced upfront, plus bundle allocations threw a wrench into demand/supply issues (bundles sold out fast and at full MSRP, stand alone copies were overshipped and discounted pretty quick). A widespread budget rerelease of Tri would definitely do well imo, probably pushing JP sales over 1.5m total for the game.
Gundam Musou sold only about 50k more than Sengoku Musou 3. That's pretty comparable imo, though Gundam had higher expectations (1m versus 700k for SM3). I think the problem with Musou is that it's down across the board (PS3, 360, PSP, Wii) and even a highlighted "success" like Hokuto Musou still even missed expectations (it did about 550k PS3, was expected to do 800k).
My point with Animal Crossing is that it's a bad example, the game wasn't an attractive release for series fans (of which there were 5 million in Japan alone) and it sold as such (about a quarter what it did on DS... which is a worse ratio than MH3 to MHP2G actually). Other franchises like Mario or Mario Kart better illustrate what a 'mainstream' game can do on each base, and it's pretty comparable. DQX only pushing 1.6m would be a massive bomb regardless of platform though, that'd be pretty far from a 'mainstream' success. And honestly, even on PS3 I think an exclusive DQX would push upwards of 2.5m anyway.
You should check your N64 figures though, Mario Kart Wii's done well over a million more than the N64 game, and Smash Brawl has done 400k more than Smash 1. And both are still selling. Mario 64 and OOT both did better than Galaxy/TP, yes, but then both were also arguably more progressive, important releases on N64 than they have been for Wii. And really, nothing on N64 can even really compare to the 3m upper tier Wii sellers (Wii Sports, Wii Fot, NSMB)... Wii's behaving more like Famicom or SFC in terms of Nintendo 1st party sales overall, and that's likely directly attributable to the larger, more mainstream base it's attained.
My reasoning for FFXIII Wii doing over 2m is that almost every more "mainstream" or "everybody" 3rd party game on Wii has done comparably to what the IPs were doing on PS2 (Taiko, Momotaru, DQ/BH spinoffs, etc). FF did over 2m on PS2, it'd probably have done similarly on Wii.
