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yo_john117 on 04 September 2010
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binary solo said:
yo_john117 said:
binary solo said:

You really shouldn't do a ratio between America's pre-orders and WW week 1 sales because there's no record of pre-orders for the rest of the world, which means the ratio is distorted and doesn't truly reflect the pre-order to Week 1 sales sell through.

For instance Madden's ratio looks like crap compared to Mafia II's. But in the America pre-orders vs America week 1 ratio Madden's ratio is better than Mafia II's. Clearly Mafia II had reasonable pre-orders in other countries, whereas Madden probably had almost none.

Well until we get European pre-orders and whatnot this is the best I can do.

The best you can do until we get Worldwide pre-orders, in terms of mathematical integrity, is for your ratio to be Americas Week 1:Americas pre-orders.

If you get Europe and America and still do a ratio with WW week 1 sales then it would still be a non-rational ratio, especially for a game that does particularly well in Japan (RE5, MGS4, NSMB Wii, GT5[no doubt]). Outside of Europe, Americas and Japan there are about 10 million PSWii360's. While not a huge % of the market it can still have a distorting effect on numbers.

Of course America's Software sales numbers are also not completely related to the pre-order chart given VGC weekly data is for Nth and Sth America whereas the pre-order chart is for North America only (does it include or exclude Canada). I guess for data approximation it would be best if the America's week 1 sales were reduced by about 18% (what the Source does to estimate / compare with NPD). That would be about as close to accurate for sales:pre-order as you could get I think.

What you're doing is great, and the more interesting data I get to see on this site the better. So I totally support what you're doing and appreciate the effort you're putting in to it. I was going for constructive criticism, trying to help improve your good work. Apologies if it didn't come out that way.

Oh no I'm always open to constructive criticism, and the reason why i'm doing it the way you see in the OP is so that we can look at the pre-order numbers from the US and see what a future game might sell worldwide.

Lol its hard for me to let you know what i'm trying to say here (I know what i'm trying to get to in my head but I just can't seem to type it in a way that would make sense that easily)

Let me try an example....

Ok so this thread will help if someone wanted to have a general idea of what a game like Assassins Creed: Brotherhood will sell for its first week worldwide.  You would come by this assumption by looking at the Assassins Creed 2 (I haven't added this game but I will hopefully get most of the games that have come out since the pre-order chart has appeared) ratio for pre-orders vs its 1st week in worldwide sales. 

Hope this helped you (sorry if it didn't)