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Nobody I know who owned a PS2 now has a Wii, and that's a very long list of people. Instead I'm seing friends of mine who never owned a console buying one. The question is, is this new market as big as the old one the PS2 made?

Is the Wii a fad? It's filled the first part of the criteria, in that it's become popular very quickly. It would then need to lose all that popularity very quickly in the future to earn the title.

Also, the Wii will never have the status of the PS2 until it matches it in market penetration and sales.