| Mummelmann said: So people still believe that the Wii will have the same lifespan as the HD consoles? Why? And don't tell me that "the Wii will start and keep selling 60 million a year", there must a reason why they will uphold this tremendous momentum. But these reasons are never given, it is just assumed that it will be that way, sound reasoning indeed. |
I personally don't think that the momentum will last forever, but I do belive that it will hold out for the next year at least. The main driver will be SSBB and Mario Kart for the nintendo fans and Wii Line of games (starting with Wii Fit) for casual gamers. If they can reach 40 million sold Wiis at the end of 2008 it would be great and that could mean a 20 million lead on the PS3 (or close to it).
I personally belive Microsoft will try for a 7 years lifespann of the xbox360 that will mean that Nintendo can afford a 6 years lifespann for the Wii. At the moment Microsoft launches 720, or whatever, PS4 needs to be launched, even if PS4 is just 2 duc taped PS3s
The main reason why I can see that Wii will last as long as the HD consols is what have extended the life of the PS2, interface game. Buzz, singstar, Guitarr Hero, Rock Band you name it. The Wii line of games is probarbly the main reason the casual buys Wii today and that makes me think that Nintendo will continue to dominate that crowd throughout the entire life cycle. Nintendo has already now shown an intresst adding new toys to the Wii, Wii Zapper and Wii Fit board, and I think Nintendo will continue to expand their offerings. That in combination with a possible 99 USD price tag might let the Wii keep on truking with the big boys during 2011.
With the early momentum Wii has build up it and the strong casual base it would be stupid for 3rd party not trying to cash in on that crowd. I think carnival games has hit 300k sold during November in USA and might have sold even more since than. That might lead to even more casual games that can give Nintendo the casual gamer edge late in the consol cycle.
Now when I have tried to explain why I can see Wii going strong and survive as long as the HD consols you could possible try to explain why it will fall flat next year.
Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!
