WORLDWIDE Sales UP -- (NA/JP up now).....Wii RISES!

[postofficebuddy]

 

TheSource said:

One of the reasons I have PS3 peaking in Sept 2009 - August 2010 is September 2010.

PS3 is going to be down over a million units against 2009 in September I'd say:

It sold 1.7m units in Sept 2009. Right now, even assuming some software lifts its trending for 600-700k in Sept 2010. October will likely be down again by several hundred thousand to half a million. Also, PS3 sold 300k week for each week of November 2009.  That probably won't happen until the second or third week of November. Down November usually means down December. So we should be done with worldwide PS3 increases for a while. Wii will be down in Oct-Dec as well. X360 probably up a bit (its mostly on hw changes and Kinect though - most of the big core games for X360 are sequels and won't push huge hw).

If you notice, PS3 is actually below 2008 levels heading into September (although probably flat next week), even though it is cheaper. Historically, price drops have less and less impact over time which is why PS3 probably hit its magic price point at $300, and may not top Sept 2009 - Aug 2010 even at $250 in 2011 (or even $200?).

Personally, I'm expecting Wii / PS3 price cuts in Spring 2011. Putting a price cut and Zelda in the same quarter in the middle part of 2011 would probably work pretty well, Wii seems to slow in April - Aug, so Zelda could push Wii for Apr and the price cut would keep pushing Wii for six months or so until the annual fall rush of titles arrives in Sept.

I'm sorry but I have to disagree with your first paragraph. Firstly I've said this time and again but even if it falls relatively flat in Americas move will likely have a pretty significant impact in PAL because for all intents and purposes it amounts to a €70/£50 price cut on the high end PS3 SKU which should lift its overall average in September well past 160k/week, although 180k/week would probably be slightly optimistic. So it shouldn't lose 1 million in September. I'd say 750k-850k is more realistic. Now I don't see PS3 matching its 250k/week average it had last October but with normal increases we see leading up to the holiday and the Move launch in Japan I think it could be close, possibly only losing 150k-100k. And with GT5 in the first week of November that month is going to be significantly up on last November. Just look at Japan, last November PS3 only sold 157k the entire month in Japan. Now assuming Sony stays consistent with their bundling and we see 200k of the blue GT5 bundle like we did with the GT5:P and Lightning bundles the first week of November will probably outsell all of November 2009 in Japan and worldwide likely be up 200k-300k depending on how big a boost it will give in Americas and EMEAA, and it's being bundled in every region just not with a limited edition blue console. Personally I think with GT5 December has the potential to match last December or at least come very close.