It could become a cat-5, its going through an eye-wall replacement cycle and the wind-sheer is dying down. Ocean temps are near record levels too. The millibar pressure it has now usually corresponds to a borderline cat-5 storm.
Based on ship logs, the entire north east is way overdue - there were major hurricanes up here in twice in the 1600s, twice in the 1700s, 1863, 1938...and none since.
Seems to happen every thirty to eighty years on average. That said, a landfall anywhere besides Mass, Canada and North Carolina is still unlikely.
Also, because the storm is real big it has an enormous IKE value (isolated kinetic energy) because the winds are moving the waves hard over an enormous area. Even once Earl weakens, the IKE value will remain enormous relative to the wind speed and air pressure. Storm surge is going to be nasty in New England and NC if this thing veers a bit more to the west.
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