I agree with you that move will fail, but I think your reasons are slightly wrong.
I actually love that they're making core games like Killzone 3, GT5 and Socom 4 move compatible because that might sway hardcore guys to get the move. If the only games on move were shitty party games and lousy sports games then who would buy it?
Anyways the reason I think Move will fail is because its expensive and its late in the gen to introduce something like this, where as the Wiimote has been there since the beginning. If you buy each part for move separately I think its like $60 for move, $20 for the "Sony nunchuk (whatever they called it)" and you need the Eyetoy which I have no idea what that costs. Once you buy all that shit its almost as much as Kintect which is also way overpriced (but that's for a whole other thread).
