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ryuzaki57 said:

Wii is losing third party support as fast as a crashing plane is losing height. For 2011, there are only 2 third party games listed : Driver San Francisco and Ghost Recon Future Soldier. Those games will sell a lot more on HD systems so there's no chance they will lift Wii sales. With no games coming Wii hardware sales will only slow down as Kinect/Move appeal to people that have no system yet. Existing users surely buy whatever games Nintendo has to offer but hardware sales won't return 2008-2009 levels without outstanding exclusives.

As for Nintendo releasing Wii2, that certainly won't be a simple matter. Nintendo faces defiance from core gamers disappointed buy the orientation taken by Wii/DS software, so this audience is not likely to buy Wii2 without a rock solid line-up (which Nintendo can't have without third parties), especially if good games keep releasing on PS3/X360. Wii owners probably won't buy the system at once because it's bound to be expensive (at least if Nintendo puts the technology to compete with PS3/X360), and casual gamers (i.e. people who spend little time playing and don't consider video games as their primary leisure) won't see the necessity to upgrade especially with Wii is their first system.

Therefore whenever it releases, Wii2 probably won't see many early adopters unless it comes with something revolutionnary (like motion control was for Wii)

Eh, there's also arguably the most important 3rd party exclusive this gen coming to Wii still; Dragon Quest X.  There's also smaller 3rd party titles slated for next year you've missed, like Hudson's Lost in Shadow or THQ's de Blob: Underground (also on PS3/360, and also going to sell best on Wii, just to counterpoint).  Several licensed titles are also getting Wii versions next year, like The Avengers or Puss-N-Boots, and you can still expect the usual sports releases (Madden 2012, PES 2012, NHL 2K12, etc).

Of course the real drivers for Wii have always been 1st party, and there's already several big or notable games for next year in that regard (Zelda SS, Mario Sports Mix, western releases for Xenoblade & The Last Story).  As of now Wii seems on even keel, if not better, with PS3 or 360 for "outstanding exclusives" next year, the real problem is the comparable lack of multiplatform support.

As for Wii 2, 3DS is pretty much laying out Nintendo next gen gameplan... which seems to ensure the core gaming audience gets in early on their system.  Maybe they'll manage the sort of support that needs (like 3DS), maybe they won't, but it's clearly the path they're taking, to try and reconsolidate the market under them.  Wii 2 will follow 3DS much in the same way Wii followed DS, at least in terms of how Nintendo positions and handles them.  By the end of 2011, putting together a PS3/360-plus spec machine for $249 shouldn't be any issue either.