Could the Wii remain dominant another five years?

[Joelcool7]

ryuzaki57 said:

Wii is losing third party support as fast as a crashing plane is losing height. For 2011, there are only 2 third party games listed : Driver San Francisco and Ghost Recon Future Soldier. Those games will sell a lot more on HD systems so there's no chance they will lift Wii sales. With no games coming Wii hardware sales will only slow down as Kinect/Move appeal to people that have no system yet. Existing users surely buy whatever games Nintendo has to offer but hardware sales won't return 2008-2009 levels without outstanding exclusives.

As for Nintendo releasing Wii2, that certainly won't be a simple matter. Nintendo faces defiance from core gamers disappointed buy the orientation taken by Wii/DS software, so this audience is not likely to buy Wii2 without a rock solid line-up (which Nintendo can't have without third parties), especially if good games keep releasing on PS3/X360. Wii owners probably won't buy the system at once because it's bound to be expensive (at least if Nintendo puts the technology to compete with PS3/X360), and casual gamers (i.e. people who spend little time playing and don't consider video games as their primary leisure) won't see the necessity to upgrade especially with Wii is their first system.

Therefore whenever it releases, Wii2 probably won't see many early adopters unless it comes with something revolutionnary (like motion control was for Wii)

Keep in mind Iwata stated just that. The next Nintendo console will revolutionalize the industry. Now I'm not sure how Nintendo plans to revolutionalize the industry a second time in a row but heck if they succeed then they shouldn't have a problem attracted the newer gamers the casuals , now the core you talk about may be alittle harder for Nintendo to attract. However when the 3DS launches and successfully follows in the footsteps of the DS I'm sure consumer confidence in Nintendo will be high.

I don't think Nintendo will have a problem, they will probubly launch an HD probubly with 3D support and some new revolutionary controller for 275.99$ Consumers will go wild and many will purchase the new console.

I think the reason third parties failed on the Wii is infact their own and Nintendo's fault. Big hardcore franchises (Most notably shooters) were absent from the Wii at launch. UbiSoft was alone in supporting Wii out of the gate and even they only released one of their core franchises (FarCry) which was very poorly ported. Then Red Steel honestly it wasn't that great. Then we saw a handful of bad ports like COD:III but not a genuine push into the hardcore demographic. By the time publishers decided to bring shooters to the Wii and other hardcore titles it was too late and too little. I mean seriously the best shooter on Wii is arguably The Conduit or WaW (Port) of course their won't be any audience left for the hardcore franchises. Had AssasinsCreed, GhostRecon , Call Of Duty Modern Warfare, Resident Evil 5 (A real Resident Evil), Grand Theft Auto. If the third parties gave Wii consumers established franchises early on their would be a market for them today. Nintendo could have also encouraged publishers to bring their big guns to Wii but instead chose to allow shovel ware and party games to over flow, casual galore. Lastly Nintendo themselves could have released a shooter (Third or first person) they could have released a horror (EternalDarkness 2) but Nintendo chose instead to stick to its most popular demographics (Platforming fans and casuals). Had Nintendo targetted hardcore gamers from the get go they could have had a much more successful platform. Then again casual software has flown off the shelves it has just cost Nintendo alot of publisher support and core gamers!

In the end those familiar with those franchises all the hardcore fans went over to X-Box and PlayStation. Their just isn't a market for those demographics. If Nintendo and third parties launch core titles out of the gate for the new Nintendo platform then I think the hardcore will adopt the console early on. In the end Nintendo's next console could be far more popular with the core demographic then Wii ever was.