Could the Wii remain dominant another five years?

[Joelcool7]

I said no for a few reasons!

#1. Nintendo Wii right now at 200$ or 150$ (Targets new sale price) is on the same price range as the new 360 in some stores. Now at the moment Nintendo has the upper hand technically yet its sales are dropping year on year and Nintendo is loosing market share. Why is that? Simple the market growth is now occuring in PS3 and somewhat with X-Box. Now forget the peripherals their one of my other reasons. Economically the Wii is not as much value for your dollar anymore. The Wii costs slightly less then PS3 and on par with 360. If Microsoft and/or Sony continue to cut their prices say down to 100$-150$ Nintendo will be in a major pickle. Nintendo's Wii was and is largely successful due to its cheap price but what is Nintendo going to do when the competition cuts prices to 100$ which will probubly happen within the next few years. What is Nintendo going to sell the Wii at 50$ or perhaps Nintendo will start giving the hardware away free? Either way if the competition continue to cut their hardware costs Nintendo will get choked out and if the 360 and PS3 aren't replaced for the next five years Nintendo will loose market share consistantly for the next five years and I believe Microsoft or Sony will eventually eclipse Nintendo's over all market share. Perhaps 90-million units sold for 360 or PS3. Even now PS3 and 360 have been securing months as market leader its only a matter of time before those gains become permanent and Nintendo stops winning every once in a while.

#2. 3rd parties. Right now with comments from within UbiSoft  EAGames , Sega , Activision and other studios and independant developers pointing to the Wii as no longer a viable market it is a good indication that Wii's time to bask in 3rd party support is coming to a close. With most major franchises absent from the Wii software market share will continue to drop. Just look at arguably the most successful 3rd party title currently for sale on the Wii (Just Dance) it has shipped 3.85 million copies. But then look at ModernWarFare2 11.41 million on the 360 alone. Now some will argue your pitting the most successful dance game in history (According to VGChartz data) against the most successful FPS in history of course Dance games gonna loose. But fact is Just Dance is far more successful then any shooter on the Wii is, I could use COD:WaW but it only sold 1.53 million. Just face it 3rd party support is dropping and as developement costs become cheaper on the more successful platforms (3rd party wise) 3rd parties will leave Nintendo stranded. I expect if Nintendo tried to last five more years without a new platform in about two years their third party support would be a quarter of what it is today.

#3. Peripherals, Microsoft has the Kinect which sorry MS Fans I believe will fail miserably. But the argument was if Sony and Microsoft last five more years could Nintendo? The only way Microsoft and Sony could last is if Kinect and Move worked. Now I think Kinect will fail because the technology is to buggy and won't be able to be played on the couch or navigated by the flip of the wrist. But if the technology works and Move succeeds then Nintendo will be left without its niche market. Most of the reason behind Nintendo's success is the fact that Nintendo targeted a large niche market (Casual and non-gamers) but once Microsoft and Sony target the same demographics Nintendo looses its edge. No longer will Nintendo be able to market their consoles unimpeded from now on Sony and MS will be their pulling Nintendo's market share down kicking and screaming. Nintendo will no longer have the best new thing on the block the Wiimote becomes old news and Kinect becomes the new hit peripheral with Move taking Nintendo on directly. If Kinect and Move are successful its good night Wii.

#5. Life cycle, Nintendo Of America has a standard five year life cycle one they have stuck to for the most part since the SNES. Going into this generation Nintendo exec's stated they would stick to a five year life cycle while Microsoft talked of four. The origional X-Box cut short its life cycle by a year and Nintendo commented that GameCube would maintain the typical five year cycle. Now if Nintendo kept GameCube alive five years would they not release a new console in 2011?

#6. R&D, fact is the next Nintendo platform has been in development since 2004/05. Miyamoto himself acknowledged at E3 2006 that the next Nintendo console would have full HD. Nintendo exec's then at that same E3 hinted at the next console. Since then Nintendo has consistantly talked about the next Nintendo system. Iwata stated Nintendo's next system will revolutionalize gaming the same way the Wii did. If Nintendo is so open about the next consoles existance and what its capabilities are then we know a finished product is not far away.

 

Now I say Nintendo would have to milk the crap out of the Wii to maintain dominance another five years. By milk the crap out of it I mean drop the price to 50$ or lower by 2013/14, or give the thing away free by 2015. Nintendo would have to make a new revolutionary peripheral availible to take back its niche market share. Nintendo would also need to remedy relations with third parties and ensure third party titles succeed (A real daunting task).

Chances of Nintendo managing to survive another five years without a new home platform in my opinion is possible (Knowing Nintendo) but highly unlikely like a 98.9% chance they wouldn't be dominant!