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Killiana1a on 27 August 2010
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Resident_Hazard said:
Squilliam said:
Slimebeast said:
Squilliam said:


Thats the reason why I said 30 months. I just realised after I posted that it was August and it could launch as late as December 2012 if it launched in that year. I hate staggered launches too. However it isn't useful if the console is supply limited for the first 6 months anyway like the Xbox 360 and Wii both were (Wii was restricted for longer) because it makes funny things like the Wii sales curve happen.

I see.

What about PS4 and Xbox 3, when will they launch?


2012-2013 is my best guess. I just don't see them dragging it out any longer than 7 years between new console generations.

To be fair, every one of the console makers have been very steadfast in the idea that their machines, for this generation, will last a very long time, often stating up to 10 years.  I'm proud of Microsoft for keeping steady with the Xbox360--with the fact that they buried the original Xbox after a measly 4 years, I was really worried.  But both MS and Sony are saying that their motion peripherals will add anywhere from 3-5 years to the lifespans of their consoles, and I sincerely hope there's some truth to that.  I don't want a new generation until very obvious advancement can be made--and at a rate that's affordable for 3rd party companies to keep up with.  Rushing last time was a financial disaster for a lot of studios. 

I think MS and Sony can pull off having another 2-3 very healthy years on their machines.  Nintendo, on the other hand, without being the only motion-controlled machine--and with their own new portable outshining their home machine where tech and graphics are concerned--will be forced to reveal a new system.  I fully expect the successor to the Wii to be announced at E3 2011, if not at least grossly hinted at.  And I expect the system to be out before 2012 is finished, with Microsoft and Sony following a year or so later, depending on the state of their sales at the time. 

There's a lot of hype around Kinect and Move.  I think they will both be somewhat successful, and that they will add some extra life to their respective systems--which, it should be noted--are performing rather well as it is.  I think we're all pretty comfortable with this generation--especially those of us with Xbox360's and/or PS3's. 

The Wii was largely intended to be an extremely affordable experiment that Nintendo could bounce back from, should disaster ensue.  It was, essentially, a stop-gap--but the most successful stop-gap arguably ever.  Despite Nintendo claiming generous life for the Wii, I don't think they ever seriously intended the system to last as long as Microsoft and Sony envision their machines to last.  Yes, I truly think that the Wii is little more than an extremely successful placeholder so Nintendo could ready the big guns.  Judging by the way the 3DS is likely going to blow the DS out of the water, the successor to the Wii is probably going to be one helluva piece of hardware. 

Nintendo is still on top, and no doubt, they're going to want to maintain that momentum.  The best way to do that?  Release the follow-up to the DS while that system is still on top.  And to maintain that momentum and push it even further?  Next year, they're going to one-up MS and Sony with what they've been spending all that Wii profit on. 

My general prediction for the next couple years:

3DS launch, late 2010.
Wii successor, PSP successor revealed in 2011.
PSP successor launch, late 2011.
Wii successor launch, (very earliest) late 2011 or 2012.
MS & Sony reveal next gen machines, 2012 (E3).
MS & Sony launch next gen machines, 2013.
And at some point over the next couple years, I wouldn't be surprised to see things get shook up with a new contender:  I expect Apple to attempt to join the fray--and to stumble badly doing so.

There are two major variables in this:  The success of the 3DS will throw a wrench into the gears for Nintendo if it pulls a Virtual Boy.  And, the success rate of Kinect and Move, coupled with sales standards of the X360 and PS3 will be major variables. --I don't expect any company to just up and murder any current systems the way Microsoft and Nintendo just dumped the Xbox and GameCube off the map.

(oops, that was long)

I have to agree on everything, but I want to add a few things.

First, when the companies reps talk about "our console will last another 5 years," what they are implying is that they will be making a profit off of those consoles for another 5 years. This has nothing to do with whether or not they currently have a successor under development or not. All it means is that over a 4 to 5 year period, they have gotten down the costs of producing their console to a point where they are making a generous profit off of each console they sell.

Second, neither Nintendo nor Microsoft want this generation to go on another 5 years. If you compare the graphics for Mafia 2 between the PC, 360 and PS3, you can really start to see the age of both the 360 and PS3 in comparison to the PC. For example, you cannot even get a clear reflection in a mirror of your protagonist in either the 360 or PS3 version, while your reflection is as clear as day in the PC version. At this point, the HD twins are beginning to show their age meaning a 2012 or 2013 Xbox 360 or PS3 successor is not far fetched at all. I expect a Wii successor come holidays 2012 or Spring 2013 at the latest.

Finally, as for Kinect and Move, expect the 360 and PS3 versions to be entirely compatible with the next generation Sony and Microsoft consoles with two versions of the same game, one for the older and one for the current console.