It's up to Nintendo, if they will support Wii after launch of next console, then it may have longer tail. 3rd parties will withdraw any support left the day next Nintendo console is announced. As well it depends on how X360 and PS3 sales will fluctuate after N6 announcement, if they'll able to hold up for a while then they may catch up a bit staying relevant compared to N6. But I'm sure Nintendo will start next gen early, and will do everything to shift focus to N6. I doubt MS and Sony will bank everything on previous gen consoles and take risks not to announce their next gen consoles shorlty after N6. Recent PR statements from MS and Sony gaming departements make it clear that they're desperate to extend this gen as far as possible, Nintendo is in good position to catch them by surprise, unprepared, literally with pants down with N6 announcement.
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