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I have said for awhile that people who are claiming the Wii is a fad, and it will just disapear, don't really understand how fads for adults work ... They typically take 2 to 3 years to hit peak popularity because it takes a while for it to move from a subculture (gamers) to the more mainstream population; once it hits its peak it usually takes 5 or more years before it becomes 'lame'.

If the Wii is a fad you'd expect it to sell 60+ Million units over 2008 and 2009, and then follow that up with an additional 60+ Million units until the end of its life in 2012 or later.