The PS3 stands no chance to last ten years unless it has sold (roughly) 50 Million units by 2011.
In 2011 you should be able to produce a far more powerful system that matches or surpass' every feature that the PS3 has and sell your system at a far lower price than the PS3 currently costs; in other words the main selling features of the PS3 will be taken away from it and (unless it has the existing userbase) it will not have the momentium to continue until 2016.
Jack Tretton has to say that it will last 10 years because no one would pay $600 for a system if they believed they would be replacing it with another $600 (or at the current rate of growth $1000) system 4 years from now; at the same time he is correct that there are no technical reasons the PS3 could not continue for 10 years (but there is also no technical reason why the PS2 outlasts the Gamecube and XBox).
