Darth Tigris said:
I can't speak for iHuGi, but there are two gross assumptions that you made that are highly suspect. 1) After the holidays, the 360 will be in 3rd place for weekly sales. There is no evidence to come to that conclusion based on what we know now. The PS3 slim boost still has not worn off, so why would the 360 redesign wear off so quickly? To come to that conclusion gives evidence that you may have a bias. 2) You concluded that MS is writing off their core audience (incorrect, as this holiday has bigger core games from them than last holiday) and Kinect will not be a success at all and nobody will buy its games. Again, a huge bias against something that you are not interested in or impressed by. That does not mean that others aren't, as it is quite clear that its initial lineup is directed at an audience other than the core. And based on numerous impressions, that audience is highly interested. |
1) Notice I said the sales of all three consoles will be very close next year (during the slow periods at least). But ultimately I think 360 will end up back in last by a hair for a few key reasons. One, the slim effect will contine to wear off. Second, the weakness of the 360's library going into next year compared to PS3. Third, the lack of strength in Japan dragging it down compared to Wii and PS3.
2) 360 has some strong titles this holiday; Reach is the obvious one, Dead Rising 2, Fallout, etc. But most of them are also coming out for PS3. And MS has not shown they are focused on core games judging from their showing at E3. There is little coming out in 2011 for MS, at leaast from what they've announced.
For Kinect, I'm just taking an educated guess, but from what I've seen, this thing is set up to be a collosal failure. Why? Just look at the titles. I can't imagine many people seeing any standout games to spend $100 for Kinect on, let alone $100 for Kinect PLUS $300 for a new console. Remember, it is software that moves hardware. This will be true for Kinect as well, no matter how neat the motion controls are. Kinect also has certain issues in that you cannot even sit while playing, nor can you play more than 2 people at once.
Will it bump hardware? Of course it will. In fact, for a few months, it will probably MASSIVELY boost hardware. But when talking LONG TERM success, Kinect will fade out quickly, unless MS and third parties drastically strengthens its software lineup for it, and MS will be left with the burden of its own 32x. I don't quite understand why people seem to believe that a cheap Wii knockoff will be such a massive hit, when even the ACTUAL Wii console is currently struggling, and it has a much stronger library than Kinect will.
