2010. By the time it reaches $199 it will be on it's final price stage and headed out of the generation. They simply won't be able to reduce costs much more from this point on. A few more die shrinks at best and some very slight shrinking of the overall packaging will get them to $199 by 2012 I'd say. Then if the PS3 continues to sell after next gen starts it may drop to $149 by 2013 and $129 by 2014. I can't see it ever going below that, though, and maybe not even below $149.
It started out costing about 2x as much as a PS2 did when the PS2 launched, and as such it will end at a higher price point than the PS2 was able to reach. My best bet would be that $149-199 will be the lowest the PS3 gets to (especially if they decide to bundle Move with every PS3 at some point).
