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nightsurge on 20 August 2010
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superchunk said:
nightsurge said:
 

How do you figure that the PS3 is going to sell 8 million from August thru December and the 360 only 6.5 million when the 360 has been outselling it and is looking to continue that trend into the holidays (where the 360 with momentum has had a big advantage over PS3 in the past)?

I'd say your figure for the 360 is way too low and your figure for PS3 too high for that time period.


PS3 last year had a slim model AND price cut that allowed it to raise and sustain a higher sell through rate.

360 had a slim model in March. If there is no price cut in these remaining months, it will begin to drop in sustained sales and while increasing in YOY it won't match PS3's sustained levels.

If 360 does get a price cut, it will have an even larger increase, however, PS3 will undoubtly match the price and therefore simply match the increase.

Plus, looking at the future game lineup and only looking at exclusives, I see GT5 being the bigger console pusher of anything these two are putting out, so PS3 will have a larger demand, imo.

I'm glad you put imo because I really have a hard time agreeing with any of that.  What slim model did 360 have in March?

The 360 doesn't need a price cut to sustain levels.  That has been made apparent over the last 2 months now.  Going into the holiday with the momentum behind it, the sales will increase in proportion to how they have in the past, meaning the sales will be higher than even 2008 levels (360's top year so far).  Also, with the overwhelming demand and hype building for Kinect amongst casuals, I think it is safe to say that will be a strong hardware driver for this holiday, far stronger than PS Move will be for the PS3.

If the 360 does cut price, which it likely won't now that sales have shown not to need one, the PS3 would be very VERY unlikely to match the price.  They still aren't making profit in that division, do you think Sony will want to take another $50 loss per machine again after just becoming profitable on hardware?  They didn't match price in 2008 when the 360 took off and I don't see any reason why/how they could this time.

All in all, Reach, Gears 3, Fable 3, and Kinect will be plenty to drive demand for the 360, far far greater than Move GT5 for the PS3 imo.