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Hard to tell really as you don't know what is around the corner. Sony could get some huge title as an exclusive again i.e GTA5. Unlikely but you never know.

But as it stands i think MW3 will deffinatly get over 10m.

I think those thinking GT5 will break that are being pretty wishful thinking. Racing games are no longer as popular as they were. FPS games are more generally liked. To think a racing game, even the best racing game of all time could sell more then Modern Warfare 2 is just crazy in my opinion. I think GT5 will end up around the 8m mark. Which is still very impressive.