USA household saturation point

[binary solo]

jarrod said:

binary solo said:

 At an even wilder guess I'm picking that multi-plat houses probably reduce that number by around 10%,

According to NPD, it's far higher than that... 14% of Wii owners also have a PS3 and 26% also have an Xbox 360.  42% of PS3 owners also have a Wii, and 34% also have a 360.  42% of 360 owners also have a Wii, and 18% also have a PS3.

So by those figures ~3.5 million PS3's are in Wii homes and ~3 million PS3's are in 360 homes making it ~6.5 million PS3's are the 2nd (or 3rd) choice console for a household.

So that makes the number of households that consider PS3 to be the primary console is ~5.3 million. Wii /360 as 2nd (or 3rd) choice consoles among those houses accounts for ~2 million Wii's and ~1.5 million 360's.

So that leaves Wii homes with 360's and 360 homes with Wii's: 2nd/3rd choice 360's in Wii houses ~5.4 million; 2nd/3rd choice Wii's in 360 houses ~6 million.

So multi-console households currently take about ~21.4 million consoles out of the system. With only %ages in those figures it's impossible to know accurately the absolute number primary households for each console, but I think the multi-console factor is in the 20-25 million range.

I'll leave rebuys at about 10% (though could be higher), which makes about 32 million console owning households giving a household attach rate of ~25%. That gives a fair bit more life to sales in USA, probably pushing the saturation point out another year or 18 months. So 2013 is when current gen console sales are really going to tail off big time, regardless of price.