This is a copy of my previous post, because VGChartz forums are acting weird.
Thanks for responding Squilliam. This kind of back-and-forth is very informative for all to see.
As for my original reference to the Red Ocean, you make a very good point in that it is not a zero sum game as we have seen Nintendo get dominated by Sony in the 5th and 6th video game generations, while Nintendo has unquestionably been the sales leader for the current, 7th, generation. Microsoft is just happy that the 360 has been a double success on the original Xbox in terms of console sales.
Still, I think Sony is selling themselves short by not making a massive marketing push in the Americas market in the same way they are currently doing in 2nd country markets who have yet to be tracked by traditional video game sales tracking methods. I may be wrong, and most likely will see more than a few Sony Move ads come Fall 2010. I hope I am because the video game market needs each of the 3 console makers to be violently competing in order to raise awareness to those not currently playing video games, but who may be interested.
Yes, the Kinect is as innovative as say the Virtual Boy. It has a lot more chances at succeeding and failing than the Virtual Boy because it is such a new technology with so many areas in it's operation to mess up such as lag, improperly detecting body movement, the camera lens going out after less than a year and on.
As a 360 owner who has dealt with the red ring of death, I will not be surprised if the 1st generation of Kinects have a fail rate above 33 percent.
I agree the market is fluid and each company has their own schedule. I am just warning of strictly adhering to a schedule without being highly attentive to changes in a dynamic market. I assume Sony is highly attentive, otherwise they would not be planning the Sony Move as they are.
