So what you are saying is that Sony with the Move is engaging a Red Ocean business strategy. Here is a succinct definition of the Red Ocean business strategy.
"Red ocean is where competitions exists and are heavily contested. Profits and growths are thin in a red ocean. It is basically a zero sum game were only the strongest survives. However, it is easier to enter because the industries are defined already so you can just copy others; however, surviving is a different story. Let’s just say red ocean is easy to enter, hard to survive."
Source: http://marketingdeviant.com/blue-and-red-ocean-business-strategy/
Lets turn your argument on it's head:
1. "Sony needs to get you, the PS3 fan to buy the Move first because they simply do not have the advantages of novelty or ease of demonstration which came naturally to the Wii at launch and which Microsoft has with Kinect. They need you to show the non PS3 gamer what Move is all about before they can start serious promotion of the interface."
In the biggest single market, the Americas, Sony has sold 14.4 million PS3s compared to Microsoft's 24.1 million 360s and Nintendo's 34.3 million Wiis. (http://www.vgchartz.com/#Americas Totals). A few questions arise from a business strategy seemingly built around catering to existing owners and word-of-mouth:
A. Is Sony testing the waters in the Americas market before they start to market Move heavily in the Americas? If the Move does not generate the sales of PS3s that they want, then what is their Plan B for competing in the Americas? A PS3 price cut down to $150-200?
B. Why cater to the core? Why not cater to those tens of millions who are not in the gaming market?
The PS3 has sold 10 million less than the 360 and 20 million less than the Wii in the Americas. Why would Sony limit it's customer base by only catering to 14 million existing customers?
2. "Extensive promotion of the Move controller this year is counter productive. They need to wait until they have the ability to price a Move enabled PS3 at a point which the mass market will accept without incurring great losses. This is why obvious games like RFOM 3 are no shows and why Socom has been delayed until 2011. Theres no point advertising a product when the price and experience hasn't come together yet. Next year is when they need the games, this year is just a taster."
Indeed it is counter-productive and downright stupid on face. You bundle the Move with the PS3 from the get-go because you will have a harder time catching up than keeping a lead. Makes no sense to cater to the core first, then change your business strategy midstream and start catering to the casuals. The risk is that those casuals will have already purchased a Kinect or Wii by January 2011.
3. "They feel they have no reason to rush things. Kinect isn't a direct competitor with the Move controller in reality and the games Nintendo has in store for the core market in the near term are less reliant on motion controls themselves. Also whether or not their confidence is well founded, they seem to have the belief that once they get the games, price, marketing and an evangelical user base on the ground to come together into a neat and powerful package. They seem to believe that the PS3 with Move will be more than competitive against the Wii and Xbox 360 in 2011."
I cannot disagree here, nor think of any questions.
As for the long version of your argument, I have to commend you for writing a well though out post and I thank you for the opportunity you have given me to escape boredom at work.
I think if Sony is waiting until 2011 to take it's stand, then it will have waited too long. The big shopping season for video games in the Americas market, the US in particular, is during the holidays. The best selling day is Black Friday, which is the Friday after Thanksgiving (the last Thursday in November). If Sony is making it's move from January 2011 on, then it has the timing all wrong and their stand may end up with them on their knees.
Business like life is a lot about timing. In business, the market does not wait for you. You either meet your competitors head on during the timing that they choose, innovate and have them catch up to you, or continually follow the leader who is Nintendo in this case.
Either way, it will be fun to see how the rest of the year shapes up.
