I think Nintendo's successor to the Wii will be the clear and away winner next gen, though I believe Sony will have the opportunity to pull a very respectable second place.
Given the current state of the Wii, Nintendo has the potential to launch first with a "Wii HD" that is similar in power or somewhat more powerful than the ps3/360 at a very affordable price. This will give them far better third party support than they had this gen, given they'll probably get both ps3/360 ports and the initial batch of new titles being developed for next gen consoles, much like Microsoft managed to get titles like Oblivion timed exclusive to their console this generation, simply because they were the only console around for that crucial first year. All that in addition to Nintendo's offerings should lead to an excellent software line up that few could pass up. It could be the DS of consoles.
However, I think Sony is in a position to do very well next generation. The most obvious problem they faced this generation was their high pricing, something that shouldn't be an issue next gen. Even if they choose to go bleeding edge, they'll most likely stick with Blu-ray and Cell technology, both of which will not suffer from the cost/yield issues they were plagued with in their infancy. This gen has also probably convinced developers that even if Sony stumbles out of the gate, it'd be an incredibly bad idea to ignore their platform, which should help ensure support from the getgo. Especially Japanese developers.
These are the main reasons I think the ps4 can do quite well for itself:
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A headstart in many newer markets.
Much like WilliamWatts pointed out above, the PlayStation brand is basically the only brand that exists in many of the world's developing markets. The ps3 is currently the best selling current gen console by a decent margin in the UAE, for example. These markets have more growth potential than any of the current major markets, and should mature and become a large chunk of the worldwide market over time. Sony will have a headstart in these areas, much like they had a headstart in most of mainland Europe thanks to the ps1, a region which is now the ps3's largest market.
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Extensive Japanese development support.
While I think many Western developers will finally give the Wii2 the support it deserves, I think Japanese developers will be feign to bet on a non-Sony console (handhelds are another matter). They were quick to jump ship after the ps3's questionable performance at launch, but almost all have returned.
Since the announcement of Monster Hunter 3, Tales of Graces, and Dragon Quest X, there hasn't been a single major announcement for the Wii in Japan, despite the Wii being the best selling console at the moment. Over that time period, Capcom's Sangoku Basara 3 has gone on to see sales 5:1 in favor of PS3, Tales of Graces has been ported to PS3, and Square Enix has announced titles such as Final Fantasy XIV for PS3. Namco stands out the most, given they've gone from providing exclusive Tales games to both of the ps3's major competitors, to eventually porting both to Sony's box, and all future Tales titles they've announced are for either PS3 or PSP, implying they believe that's where the Tale's fanbsse resides.
Most Japanese developers realized pretty quickly their abandonment of the ps3 was quite pre-mature, and I don't think they'll be willing to take too many chances on something other than the ps4 as a result.
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A stronger first party.
Since the formation of SCE Worldwide Studios back in 2005, Sony has done a great job in increasing both the size and notoriety of their first party offerings. Most notably, they've gone from having only two system selling franchises to having several, now including Uncharted and LittleBigPlanet.
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A more robust PlayStation Network.
A fully featured PSN spread across PS3, PSP2, and PS4 will be a significant selling point for anybody interested in getting a next gen console who already owns another PlayStation device. Whether it's Trophies, games you own via the PSN, or simply wanting to chat with your PSN buddies, both PS4 and PSP2 will incorporate and add to this experience.
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Full BC for PS1/2/3.
You can expect PS2 software emulation to appear eventually, and assuming the PS4 is based on Cell, it's unlikely the console won't also support PS3 playback. This will make the machine compatible with like 10,000 games, which should provide a compelling reason for anybody who has previously owned a PlayStation console to go with a PS4.
As for a PSP2, I think it'll be more popular amongst the hardcore ps3/ps4 gamer, thanks to improved PSN access, the probable ability to play things like the upcoming ps2 classics, and other improvements that'll make it an excellent companion to Sony's home consoles than the PSP could ever hope to be, but less popular amongst the larger gaming market, given the lackluster support of the PSP that has most likely left a bad taste in most people's mouths. Overall success could go either way, but I think it'll do fairly well.
