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it really depends on the software. by the looks of it there's going to be plenty of games for the 'hardcore'.

if that's all it's going to have then yeah, it won't be as successful as the DS family. 

however knowing how much Nintendo like money, i'd expect them to support it with many expanded audience titles similar to Nintendogs, Brain Age, Animal Crossing, etc.

because of that, 3rd parties will also support it with similar titles.

we're seeing lots of 'hardcore' games now because a) the 'hardcore' are usually the early buyers and b) unlike the DSphat launch, Nintendo have allowed 3rd parties ample time to have software available for the 3DS launch.

i think it's still a very long time before Nintendo's portable dominance ends.